Sign/Tether Market Overview: Bullish Breakout Amid High Volatility and Diverging Turnover

• SIGNUSDT rose from 0.03967 to 0.0421 in 24 hours, posting strong bullish momentum in late hours.
• A key breakout above 0.0409 confirmed a shift in sentiment.
• Volatility expanded after 0.0409, with a massive volume spike at 0.04146.
• RSI reached 68–70, indicating overbought conditions toward the close.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved to the upper band, suggesting potential pullback risk.

Sign/Tether (SIGNUSDT) opened at 0.03967 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.0421 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0421 and a low of 0.03967. Total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 53,955,330, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,200,000. The price surged past 0.0409 in the late evening hours, signaling a potential breakout in a 6-month bullish trend.

The price action formed a strong bullish continuation pattern with a confirmed breakout above the 0.0409 level. A 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart sits at 0.0407, while the 20-period MA is at 0.0409, indicating price is above both key short-term averages. The daily MA (50/100/200) shows a positive tilt, with price well above the 200-day line, suggesting a continuation in the higher time frame.

MACD crossed into positive territory in the evening, with a growing histogram and a bullish signal line crossover. RSI reached 68–70 during the final hours, indicating overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with price closing near the upper band—a classic sign of overextension. The 0.04146 candlestick recorded a massive 53,955,330 volume spike, which may indicate either accumulation or a potential reversal.

Notional turnover diverged from price near the 0.0421 high, with lower-than-expected trading interest. This suggests some profit-taking or hesitation at higher levels. On the 15-minute chart, the 0.0409 level is a key psychological and Fibonacci 50% retracement level. A pullback to 0.04075–0.04065 could test the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the 50-period MA. Volume distribution shows increased buying pressure in the 0.0409–0.0412 range, supporting the idea of accumulation before the breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-based trading strategy under review relies on identifying overbought and oversold conditions as triggers for entry and exit points. In this context, the RSI levels for Sign/Tether have approached the overbought threshold of 70 in the 24-hour period. Given the potential for a correction after such a sharp move, a sell signal at RSI > 70 may be valid. However, to refine this strategy for historical performance validation, it's crucial to clarify the correct ticker symbol and threshold levels. For the ticker in question—whether it's “HOLD.P” or “HOLD”—obtaining consistent and accurate historical RSI data is essential. Similarly, confirming whether the RSI thresholds should remain at the standard 30/70 or be adjusted to a broader 25/75 range will ensure the strategy is appropriately calibrated for the asset's volatility profile. Once confirmed, the strategy can be backtested using daily RSI from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-25 to evaluate its performance and risk-adjusted returns.