Sigma Lithium avanza un 9,76% a un máximo histórico de 52 semanas en medio de temores acerca del suministro de litio y súbito aumento de demanda de vehículos eléctricos

Summary
• Sigma Lithium (SGML) rockets to $14.25, a 52-week high, amid fears of Chinese lithium supply constraints.
• Lithium carbonate futures hit $14,060/ton, a 18-month peak, driven by Yichun’s permit cancellations and CATL’s mine suspension.
• SGML’s 200% surge in six months contrasts with a 20% 2025 gain, signaling speculative fervor.

Today’s 9.76% rally in Sigma Lithium reflects a perfect storm of tightening lithium supply, surging EV demand, and strategic sales management by the company. With China’s regulatory crackdown on outdated permits and CATL’s 3% global supply mine offline, the lithium market is in a tailwind phase. SGML’s intraday range of $12.70–$14.25 underscores the volatility, while its 4.2M turnover highlights renewed institutional interest.

Chinese Permit Cancellations and EV Demand Drive Lithium Price Surge
Sigma Lithium’s 9.76% intraday jump is directly tied to China’s decision to revoke 27 lithium mining permits in Yichun, the 'Lithium Capital of Asia,' and the suspension of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine. These moves, coupled with a 21% November spike in new energy vehicle registrations, have ignited fears of a supply-demand imbalance. Lithium carbonate futures surged to $99,000 yuan ($14,060/ton), a 18-month high, as China’s reclassification of lithium as an independent mineral accelerates permit revocations. SGML’s strategic sales management—hoarding inventory during price dips—positions it to capitalize on the current $14,060/ton benchmark, boosting cash flows and balance sheet strength.

Lithium Sector Rally Outpaces Broader Market Amid EV Infrastructure Push
The lithium sector is outperforming as China’s 2027 EV charging capacity target of 180 gigawatts and Ganfeng’s 30% demand growth forecast fuel optimism. However, sector leader Albemarle (ALB) fell 0.7% today, highlighting divergent performances. SGML’s 9.76% gain contrasts with ALB’s decline, underscoring SGML’s unique positioning in the EV battery supply chain and its ability to adjust sales volumes to exploit price cycles.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on SGML’s Volatility and Sector Momentum
• 200-day MA: $7.22 (well below current price)
• RSI: 53.83 (neutral, no overbought/oversold signals)
• MACD: 0.93 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.98 (neutral), Histogram: -0.04 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $12.36, Middle $10.74, Lower $9.13 (price at upper band)
• Key support/resistance: 30D $11.50–$11.64, 200D $5.87–$6.02

SGML’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend amid a long-term ranging pattern. The stock is testing its 52-week high of $14.25, with RSI and MACD indicating momentum but a bearish histogram hinting at potential pullbacks. Traders should monitor the $12.70 intraday low as a critical support level. For leveraged exposure, consider the Lithium Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) if available, though no direct ETF is listed here. Options traders may focus on the following:

• SGML20260116C14 (Call, $14 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- Implied Volatility: 131.20% (high)
- Delta: 0.52 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0446 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0848 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 85,195 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.18% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($14.05): $0.05 per share. This call offers high gamma and liquidity, ideal for a continuation of the bullish trend.

• SGML20260116P13 (Put, $13 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- Implied Volatility: 133.60% (high)
- Delta: -0.39 (moderate downside protection)
- Theta: -0.0243 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.0804 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 30,607 (liquid)
- Leverage Ratio: 8.13% (moderate)
- Payoff at 5% upside ($14.05): $1.05 per share. This put provides downside insurance with high gamma, balancing risk in a volatile environment.

Aggressive bulls may consider SGML20260116C14 into a break above $14.25, while cautious traders should watch the $12.70 support level for a potential reversal.

Backtest Sigma Lithium Stock Performance
The backtest of SGML's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 49.45%, the 10-Day win rate is 46.80%, and the 30-Day win rate is 59.16%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 9.45%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains following the intraday surge.

Sigma Lithium’s 52-Week High: A Supply-Driven Rally with High Gamma Options as Safeguards
Sigma Lithium’s 9.76% surge to $14.25 is a textbook case of supply-side tailwinds and strategic sales execution. With lithium carbonate futures at 18-month highs and China’s regulatory crackdowns tightening supply, SGML’s 200% six-month gain suggests further upside. However, the bearish histogram and 200-day MA divergence warn of potential corrections. Traders should prioritize the SGML20260116C14 call for momentum and the SGML20260116P13 put for downside protection. Watch the $12.70 support level and sector leader Albemarle (ALB), which fell 0.7% today, for broader market signals. If $14.25 holds, SGML could test $16.85, but a breakdown below $12.70 would trigger a reevaluation of the bullish thesis.