Shopify's Q4 Earnings Expected to be Strong, Margin and AI Strategy in Focus

Shopify is expected to end 2025 on a strong note with Jefferies forecasting solid fundamentals and disciplined spending. Analysts anticipate gross merchandise volume of $121 billion, up 28% YoY, and revenue of $3.57 billion, slightly below consensus. However, near-term profitability could face pressure from higher infrastructure and AI-related costs. The company's new 4% OpenAI Instant Checkout fee has raised concerns among investors.