Shinhan Financial Tests Key 41.60 Resistance Amid Mixed Technical Signals

Candlestick Theory
Shinhan Financial Group exhibits potential bearish exhaustion near the $41.60 resistance level established on May 29, reinforced by the June 3 session’s long upper shadow (high: $41.46, close: $40.56), indicating rejection. Immediate support resides near $40.00, anchored by the June 2 low of $40.02 and reinforced by the psychological round number. A cluster of May 21–23 closes near $38.80–$39.90 forms secondary support, but failure to hold $40.00 may signal further downside.
Moving Average Theory
The stock maintains a bullish intermediate structure, trading above all key moving averages. The 50-day MA (approximately $37.80) crossed bullishly above the 200-day MA (approximately $36.20) in mid-April, confirming a long-term uptrend. Recent price consolidation above the rising 100-day MA (~$38.50) suggests underlying strength. Sustained trading above the 50-day MA supports a bullish bias, though a close below $39.90 (near the 50-day) could trigger profit-taking.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows neutral momentum, hovering near the signal line after a bearish crossover in late May. The lack of decisive momentum divergence suggests consolidation rather than trend reversal. KDJ reflects short-term oversold conditions (K: ~35, D: ~40) following the June 2 sell-off, with the June 3 rebound supporting potential near-term recovery. Confluence exists as MACD’s neutral stance aligns with KDJ’s rebound signal, but confirmation requires stronger bullish momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded on June 3 (high-low range: $1.18 vs. June 2’s $0.62), pushing prices toward the upper band ($41.60). The rejection near this band reinforces resistance. The bands are narrowing after May’s wide-ranged moves, suggesting a coiled spring for directional breakout. A close above $41.60 or below $39.50 would signal volatility expansion.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns raise sustainability concerns for the uptrend. The May 29 peak ($41.54) occurred on below-average volume (179,624 shares vs. May 23’s 236,551), diverging from price strength. The June 2 decline (-2.27%) saw higher volume (193,172), suggesting conviction in selling. The June 3 rebound registered the lowest volume in five sessions (113,881), indicating weak buying interest near resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (current: ~55) retreated from near-overbought territory (67 on May 29) but remains neutral, aligning with the recent consolidation. No extreme readings suggest balanced momentum. Bearish divergence is noted: the May 29 higher high ($41.54 vs. May’s prior high) contrasted with a lower RSI high (67 vs. 73 in early May), warning of weakening upside momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the March–May rally (swing low: $31.04 on March 11; high: $41.54 on May 29), key retracement supports cluster near $38.80–$39.20 (23.6%–38.2%). The June 2 low ($40.02) held firmly above the shallow 23.6% level ($39.20), indicating robust demand. This aligns with moving average support near $39.90, creating a high-probability bounce zone. A sustained break below $38.80 would challenge the 50% retracement ($36.30).
Summary Insights
Confluence exists around $39.90–$40.00, where Fibonacci, moving average, and psychological supports converge. Volume divergence and RSI bearish divergence warrant caution for upside potential near $41.60 resistance. Bullish momentum would strengthen with a high-volume break above $41.60, while failure at $40.00 may target $39.20. Given mixed signals (bullish MA/Fib alignment vs. bearish volume/RSI divergences), near-term consolidation appears probable, with a directional breakout likely post-volatility contraction.