Shinhan Financial Edges Up 0.07% Amid Technical Resistance At 43.77

Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) edged up 0.07% in the most recent session to close at 42.90, reflecting cautious trading within a narrow range after recent volatility. The following technical analysis synthesizes multiple indicators based on approximately one year of price data, highlighting key patterns and probabilities for future price action.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks reveal a dynamic shift in sentiment. The 6.76% bullish surge on 2025-06-04 formed a strong green candle with a high of 43.77, suggesting robust buying momentum. However, this was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-06-05 (high: 43.20, close: 42.87), indicating potential exhaustion near the 43.00–43.77 resistance zone. The subsequent small-bodied candle on 2025-06-06 (range: 42.71–43.06) signals indecision. Key support lies at 40.52–40.60 (May–June lows), while resistance is firmly established at 43.77. A confirmed close above 43.77 would validate bullish continuation, whereas failure to hold 42.40 may trigger a pullback.
Moving Average Theory
The moving average configuration exhibits a bullish trend structure. The 50-day moving average (approx. 41.00) trades above the 100-day (approx. 39.50) and 200-day (approx. 37.50), confirming a sustained uptrend. Recent price action holding above the 50-day MA after the 2025-06-04 surge reinforces medium-term bullish bias. However, the close near 42.90 on 2025-06-06—just below the psychological 43.00 level—warrants monitoring for potential short-term consolidation or mean reversion toward the 50-day MA if downside pressure intensifies.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a waning bullish momentum following the 2025-06-04 peak, with the histogram contracting as the signal line threatens to cross below the MACD line. Concurrently, KDJ indicates overbought territory (K and D above 80) on 2025-06-04, with subsequent moderation. The KDJ pullback aligns with recent price consolidation, suggesting near-term exhaustion. While no decisive bearish crossover exists yet, weakening momentum oscillators imply elevated risk of a short-term retracement, particularly if MACD confirms a bearish cross.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the 2025-06-04 rally, reflecting heightened volatility. The current band width remains moderately wide, with price hovering near the upper band (approx. 43.50), indicating persistent upward pressure. However, the rejection from 43.77 and consolidation below this level may foreshadow a band contraction phase. A decisive close below the midline (20-SMA near 42.00) could signal a bearish volatility shift, while holding above 42.40 maintains upside bias.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume trends provide critical context for price validity. The breakout on 2025-06-04 occurred with the highest volume (270,588) in two months, confirming bullish conviction. However, the subsequent down day (2025-06-05) saw elevated volume (233,049), suggesting distribution at resistance. The low volume (148,400) during 2025-06-06’s marginal gain indicates hesitancy. This divergence—high volume on down days vs. low volume on up days—questions near-term upside sustainability and may foreshadow consolidation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (estimated at 65–68) retreated from overbought territory (>70) after the 2025-06-04 peak but remains in neutral-bullish range. Average gains have consistently outpaced losses over the past month, reflecting underlying strength. While not oversold, the RSI’s failure to breach 70 during the recent high suggests negative divergence, aligning with MACD and KDJ warnings. This divergence should be heeded as a cautionary signal despite the absence of oversold conditions.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the rally from the 2025-05-02 low (36.22) to the 2025-06-04 high (43.77) reveals key thresholds. The 23.6% retracement (42.69) held as support during the 2025-06-05 dip (low: 42.43). This shallow pullback indicates strong buyer interest. Sustained trading above 42.69 keeps immediate bullish prospects intact. Deeper supports lie at the 38.2% level (41.97) and 50% level (41.00), which would align with historical congestion zones should a retracement deepen.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence exists at 42.40–42.70, where Fibonacci support, the Bollinger Band midline, and the recent swing low converge. A breach here would align with bearish momentum divergences (MACD, KDJ, RSI) and volume-profile weaknesses, potentially triggering a test of 41.00–41.50. Conversely, decisive closes above 43.00 would invalidate divergence warnings and reactivate bullish targets near 44.00. Divergences between weakening oscillators and still-resilient price action represent the primary near-term risk, advising vigilance for trend confirmation in subsequent sessions. Probabilistically, the preponderance of evidence suggests a higher likelihood of consolidation or mild retracement before any resumption of the broader uptrend, contingent on price holding above 42.40.