La evolución del poder del dólar estadounidense y las oportunidades de divisas emergentes en el año 2026

The U.S. dollar, long the cornerstone of global finance, is undergoing a seismic shift in 2025. After a historic 9.4% annual decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which closed at 98.2 by year-end-the weakest level since early October-investors are recalibrating their strategies to navigate a de-dollarizing world according to trading economics. This retreat, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials, and geopolitical turbulence under President Donald Trump's tariff policies, has catalyzed a reallocation of capital toward non-dollar assets and emerging market currencies according to trading economics. For investors, the implications are clear: a diversified, forward-looking approach is essential to capitalize on the opportunities-and mitigate the risks-of this evolving landscape.

The 2025 Dollar Retreat: A Structural Reassessment

The U.S. dollar's 2025 performance was its worst in over a decade, with the DXY dropping 10.7% in the first half of the year alone. This collapse was not merely cyclical but reflected deeper structural concerns. Morgan Stanley Research estimates the dollar could lose another 10% by 2026, citing persistent U.S. fiscal deficits, eroding confidence in the Fed's independence, and a global shift toward hedging against dollar exposure. By Q3 2025, foreign investors holding $30 trillion in U.S. assets began aggressively hedging their positions, exacerbating the dollar's weakness.

The dollar's decline has also been amplified by policy uncertainty. Trump's chaotic tariff rollout disrupted global supply chains, while the Fed's pivot to rate cuts-projected to reach 2.5% by 2026-narrowed the U.S. interest rate advantage over peers like the eurozone and emerging markets according to Morgan Stanley. These factors have shifted investor sentiment, with the dollar now trading at a significant discount to its long-term fundamentals.

Sectoral Impacts: Winners and Losers in a Weaker Dollar

The dollar's retreat has had divergent effects on multinational corporations. For firms with substantial international revenue, such as Apple, NVIDIA, and PepsiCo, a weaker dollar has been a tailwind. Foreign earnings translated into stronger USD results, boosting valuations and shareholder returns. Similarly, energy and manufacturing sectors, though initially pressured by higher operational costs due to trade uncertainty, have adapted by reshoring production and optimizing supply chains for a weaker dollar.

Conversely, domestic-focused sectors like real estate and regional banking have seen limited benefits. These industries remain tethered to local economic conditions, which are less responsive to currency fluctuations according to market analysis. The contrast underscores the importance of sector-specific strategies in a de-dollarizing world.

Emerging market currencies have also gained traction. The euro appreciated 13.5% against the dollar in 2025, while a basket of emerging market currencies rose 6.4%. However, this appreciation has introduced inflationary pressures in some economies, as weaker import prices are offset by higher costs for imported goods. For investors, the key is to balance exposure to currency appreciation with macroeconomic stability in target markets.

De-Dollarization: Policy Shifts and Strategic Reallocation

The 2025 dollar retreat has accelerated de-dollarization trends, particularly in emerging markets. Central banks have reduced the dollar's share in foreign exchange reserves to a two-decade low of 56.32% in Q2 2025. This shift is being driven by a combination of geopolitical hedging and economic pragmatism. For instance, China and Russia have eliminated the dollar from bilateral trade via yuan-real and ruble-yuan settlements, while BRICS nations are advancing alternatives to SWIFT through systems like BRICS Pay according to investment news.

Gold has emerged as a critical component of reserve diversification. Central banks in emerging markets, including Poland, Brazil, and Indonesia, added 53 tonnes of gold in October 2025 alone. By 2025, gold's share in global reserves surpassed 23%, reflecting its role as a hedge against dollar volatility and geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan's share in reserves remained steady at 2.12%, constrained by China's capital controls but showing gradual progress.

These policy shifts signal a broader reallocation of global financial power. While the dollar remains dominant in trade invoicing and cross-border transactions, its structural advantages are being challenged by alternative currencies and assets. For investors, this creates opportunities in non-dollar equities, local currency bonds, and gold-backed assets.

Strategic Reallocation: A Path Forward

The de-dollarizing world demands a strategic, diversified approach. Investors should consider:
1. Emerging Market Equities: Firms in sectors like technology and consumer goods, which benefit from dollar weakness and rising global demand.
2. Local Currency Bonds: Currencies in countries with stable macroeconomic fundamentals, such as the euro and select emerging market currencies.
3. Gold and Diversified Reserves: Gold's role as a hedge against geopolitical and dollar-related risks remains compelling.
4. Non-Dollar Currencies in Trade Corridors: Exposure to yuan, euro, and regional currencies in trade agreements (e.g., China-Brazil, UAE-India).

As the dollar's dominance wanes, the next decade will likely see a more multipolar global financial system. Investors who adapt early-by embracing diversification and leveraging de-dollarization trends-will be best positioned to thrive in this new era.