SHIBUSDT Market Overview: Bearish Consolidation Amid High Volatility

• SHIBUSDT declined 4.2% in 24 hours, reaching 1.205e-05 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged after 06:15 ET, with a 580B volume surge.
• Price found support at 1.201e-05–1.203e-05, forming a potential base.
• Volatility expanded post 06:15 ET, with price falling outside lower Bollinger Band.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 28, hinting at potential short-term bounce.

Price Action and Structure

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 1.287e-05 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.291e-05, and closed at 1.207e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour notional turnover amounted to approximately 8.89 trillion, with total volume of 1.33 trillion tokens. The price declined in a bearish channel, with key resistance forming around 1.287e-05 and support near 1.201e-05. A series of bearish engulfing patterns emerged after 06:15 ET as sellers overwhelmed buyers, signaling strong conviction in the downward move.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period SMAs crossed below price during the sharp decline, reinforcing bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) appear to be trending lower, aligning with the intraday bearish momentum. The MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, indicating a shift in momentum. The RSI, at 27.8, is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, though continuation of the bearish trend remains a strong possibility.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged after 06:15 ET, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band and staying there for over 6 hours. This indicates increased fear or profit-taking by short-term traders. The band width expanded during the decline, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the market. Price has since bounced toward the middle band but remains below key resistance levels, which could act as a psychological barrier for further downward moves.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged sharply at 06:15 ET, reaching 868B, a key turning point in the bearish move. Turnover spiked in line with this volume, showing strong conviction in the downward move. However, after 08:00 ET, volume and turnover began to moderate, suggesting a potential slowdown in bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume has yet to appear, but if it does, it could signal a reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour move from 1.291e-05 to 1.201e-05, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 1.249e-05, and the 61.8% level at 1.225e-05. Price is currently near the 78.6% retracement level at 1.207e-05, suggesting it may find support or retest 1.225e-05 as a short-term target if buyers regain control. These levels may act as key psychological points over the next 24–48 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a mean-reversion approach triggered by oversold RSI levels below 30, combined with a Fibonacci-based target zone between 1.201e-05 and 1.225e-05. Assuming RSI stays near 28 and price remains within this zone, the model suggests a 1.5–2.0% bounce in the next 12–24 hours. A stop-loss is recommended below 1.201e-05 to limit downside risk. The strategy also considers volume divergence: if volume declines while price remains flat, it may indicate exhaustion of bearish pressure. This approach aligns with current indicators but should be tested with recent historical data for reliability.