SHIBJPY Market Overview: Volatile Breakout and Oversold Momentum Signal Possible Rebound

• SHIBJPY opened at 0.001757 and closed at 0.001591 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• A sharp sell-off occurred during the session, with the price dropping to a low of 0.00155.
• High volume surges coincided with bearish breakouts, confirming downward momentum.
• Key support at 0.00155 held, but further tests expected.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term bounce.

The SHIBJPY pair opened at 0.001757 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.001591 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a high of 0.00177, a low of 0.00155, and a total volume of 24,081,486,835 units. Notional turnover exceeded 38 million Yen.

Structure on the 15-minute chart indicates a bearish breakout with a large bearish candle forming around 2025-10-10 21:00 ET. A key support level appears to have formed at 0.00155 after the price briefly tested it, but failed to break through. A bullish engulfing pattern appears at the close of the session, suggesting possible short-term reversal. A doji at 0.001591 also signals indecision, which may precede a reversal.

Momentum indicators confirm the bearish trend. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 25, suggesting potential buying pressure could emerge. MACD shows a bearish crossover, with the histogram contracting, indicating weakening bearish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a strong downward trend, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off phase, as shown by wide Bollinger Bands. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting it may retrace toward the middle. Volume and turnover were highest during the 21:00–23:30 ET period, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.001734 to 0.00155. The price-volume divergence suggests strong conviction in the downward move, but the oversold RSI may prompt a temporary rebound.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart suggest 0.001591 (38.2%) and 0.001632 (61.8%) as key targets for a possible bounce. On the daily chart, a retracement from the high of 0.00177 to the low of 0.00155 places 0.00166 (38.2%) and 0.00163 (61.8%) as potential resistance levels for a recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position when the RSI dips below 25 and a bullish engulfing pattern forms near key support levels, as observed near 0.00155. A stop-loss could be placed just below the support, while a take-profit target might be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.001591. This setup aligns with the current technical conditions and would aim to capitalize on a likely short-term bounce in an otherwise bearish trend.