Shiba Inu/Yen Market Overview (2025-09-25)

• SHIBJPY declined 0.24% over 24 hours, closing at 0.001765 Yen with a bearish bias.
• Volume spiked mid-session, with key support seen at 0.001763 and resistance at 0.001783.
• RSI entered oversold territory, signaling potential short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed earlier, indicating a contraction in volatility.

Shiba Inu/Yen (SHIBJPY) opened at 0.001834 Yen on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, peaking at 0.001836 before closing at 0.001765 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour total volume amounted to 3.44 billion SHIB, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥6.15 million. The session saw a distinct bearish bias, particularly after a key breakdown below 0.00178.

Structure & Formations

The price action featured a key breakdown candle at 0.001775–0.001773, confirming a bearish bias. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 0.001783 and 0.001773, indicating a shift in momentum. A doji appeared near 0.001771, hinting at a possible pause in the decline. Key support levels are forming at 0.001763 and 0.00175, while resistance appears at 0.001783 and 0.001791.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50EMA crossed below the 100EMA, confirming a mid-term bearish shift. The 200SMA remained above the current price, indicating a longer-term bearish potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative around 0.001783, and the RSI dropped to 27, entering oversold territory—suggesting a potential short-term rebound. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, with MACD still below the signal line.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply early in the session before expanding as the price fell below the lower band. This expansion is typically associated with increased bearish pressure. The current price sits near the lower band, suggesting possible support at 0.001763.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged mid-session, particularly between 20:00 and 04:00 ET, during the key breakdown move. Notional turnover increased in line with the price decline, confirming the move rather than indicating divergence. A small volume spike occurred near the 0.001763 level, suggesting early accumulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute move from 0.001833 to 0.001761 saw the price retest the 61.8% level at 0.001783 before falling further. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level at 0.001792 appears as a potential short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a breakdown below 0.001783 with a stop-loss above 0.001792 and a take-profit target at 0.001763. Given the RSI's oversold reading and the Bollinger Bands' expansion, a mean-reversion trade at 0.001763–0.001765 may also present a low-risk entry for a bullish bias.

The bearish momentum is strong, and SHIBJPY may test the 0.00175 support level in the next 24 hours. However, a bounce from the 0.001763 level is possible if buying interest builds, especially with the RSI near oversold levels. Investors should monitor volume and price behavior near 0.001783 for possible reversals or continuation of the downtrend.