Shiba Inu/Tether Market Overview

• SHIB/USDT dropped 5.1% in 24 hours, closing below 1.190e-05 after bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded in early ET hours, with a 1.206e-05 to 1.162e-05 intraday range.
• Bollinger Bands and RSI suggest oversold conditions, hinting at a potential bounce.
• Volume surged overnight, but price failed to confirm bearish breakdowns.
• MACD turned negative, while Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 1.189e-05 shows support.

Shiba Inu/Tether (SHIBUSDT) opened at 1.231e-05 at 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 1.232e-05 and falling to a low of 1.162e-05 before closing at 1.182e-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 631,912,891,933.0, with notional turnover aligned to bearish pressure. Price action showed aggressive selling, particularly after 04:00 ET, with consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period displayed a bearish breakdown pattern following a false rally into the 1.231e-05 level. A morning high at 1.232e-05 failed to hold, leading to a bearish engulfing pattern. Key support levels formed at 1.190e-05 and 1.182e-05, with a doji at 1.185e-05 suggesting indecision. Resistance appears at 1.195e-05, with a potential for retesting from current levels.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50) crossed bearishly below the price, confirming downward momentum. The 20SMA currently at 1.191e-05 and the 50SMA at 1.194e-05 create a bearish slope. On the daily chart, the 200DMA at 1.188e-05 could act as a critical support if the trend continues.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative mid-day and remained below zero, with bearish divergence between the histogram and price. The RSI currently stands at 31, indicating oversold territory. While this may hint at a potential bounce, bearish momentum remains intact, and a close below 1.182e-05 could push RSI lower into more extreme territory.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight as price moved outside the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. Price is now consolidating near the lower band at 1.180e-05, suggesting a temporary pause in selling pressure. A retest of the upper band at 1.196e-05 could trigger a reversal if volume supports the move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked overnight and again after 05:00 ET, coinciding with key breakdowns. Turnover aligned with price, confirming bearish moves into 1.162e-05. However, volume has reduced in recent hours, suggesting exhaustion. Divergences in volume and price during consolidation indicate the market is assessing next support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.189e-05 held well in the final hours, acting as a critical support. A breakdown below this level could push the pair to 1.182e-05 and potentially 1.177e-05. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at 1.170e-05 remains a key level to watch for extended bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns and divergences in MACD and RSI to signal short entries. A viable hypothesis is to test a strategy that enters short positions when SHIB/USDT forms a bearish engulfing candle at key resistances (like 1.195e-05) and when RSI/30 or MACD divergence is confirmed. The strategy would exit longs at Fibonacci levels or when RSI rebounds above 40. Given the current structure, this strategy might have confirmed short entries overnight with strong stop-loss placement just above 1.196e-05.