Shiba Inu's Short-Term Rebound: On-Chain Optimism vs. Derivatives Distrust

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem is at a crossroads in October 2025. On-chain metrics paint a picture of resilience and growing engagement, while derivatives data reveals a fractured market sentiment. This analysis unpacks the conflicting signals and evaluates whether SHIB's short-term rebound is a realistic possibility-or a speculative mirage.

On-Chain Sentiment: A Foundation of Resilience

SHIB's on-chain activity in October 2025 suggests a strengthening base despite its stagnant price. As of October 9, the token has 1.54 million on-chain holders, a figure that has held firm despite broader market volatility, according to an onthenode report. This retention rate is critical for a memecoin, as it signals a committed community less prone to panic selling.

Whale activity further reinforces this narrative. Large holders have accumulated 4.66 trillion SHIB tokens (~$64 million) during price dips in the $0.000012–$0.000013 range . Such accumulation typically precedes bullish price action, as whales lock in discounted positions. Additionally, a net outflow of -38.5 billion SHIB from exchanges in October 2025 indicates reduced selling pressure, with investors preferring to hold rather than trade, according to a CoinEdition article.

Transaction volume and active addresses also tell a story of cautious optimism. Daily trading volume exceeded $214 million, and active addresses rose by 1.12% month-over-month, as reported in a Bankless Times article. While these figures are not record-breaking, they suggest a stable, if not explosive, ecosystem. Platforms like Etherscan and Dune Analytics show consistent wallet interactions, hinting at growing utility beyond speculative trading; that Bankless Times article also highlights similar on-chain trends.

Derivatives Market Signals: A Tale of Two Exchanges

The derivatives market for SHIB in October 2025 is a patchwork of bullish and bearish signals. Open interest-a measure of leveraged positions-fell by 2.19% in a 24-hour window, dropping to $198.48 million, according to Coinglass metrics. This decline, coupled with $1.02 million in liquidated long positions, signals a shift toward bearish positioning, as noted in the Bankless Times article. However, the picture is not uniformly grim.

Coinbase reported a 1.54% increase in SHIB open interest, while the long/short ratio stood at 1.09, indicating a slight edge for bulls (Coinglass data). Positive funding rates since early September 2025 also suggest that perpetual futures traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions, a classic bullish indicator noted in the onthenode piece.

Yet, the broader derivatives landscape is fragmented. Gate.io saw a 4.21% drop in open interest, and the Fear & Greed Index for SHIB hit 34, reflecting widespread fear, as covered by the Bankless Times article. This duality-bullish on some platforms, bearish on others-highlights the speculative nature of SHIB's derivatives market.

Technical Outlook: A Breakout or Breakdown?

SHIB's price is currently consolidating in a year-long symmetrical triangle pattern, with resistance at $0.00001350 and support near $0.00001200, as detailed in the onthenode report. A breakout above $0.00001350 could trigger a rally toward $0.000018–$0.000019, while a breakdown below $0.00001100 would invalidate the bullish case, the onthenode piece notes.

The RSI at 55.15 and a MACD line below the signal line suggest neutral to bearish momentum, according to the Bankless Times article. However, the 181% spike in token burn rates in October 2025-removing 5.7 million SHIB from circulation-could reduce sell pressure and support the price, a trend highlighted in the CoinEdition article.

Ecosystem Developments: Shibarium's Role

Shibarium, SHIB's Layer-2 blockchain, is undergoing a technical overhaul with the Shib Alpha Layer, designed to enhance cross-chain interoperability and privacy, according to the onthenode report. This upgrade could attract developers and increase on-chain activity, potentially boosting SHIB's utility as a gas token. Partnerships with the UAE Ministry of Energy and Chainlink's CCIP integration also hint at expanding real-world adoption, as discussed in that onthenode piece.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet

SHIB's short-term rebound hinges on two critical factors: whale accumulation and Shibarium's adoption. On-chain metrics suggest a resilient base, while derivatives data reflects a market split between cautious bulls and profit-taking bears. The technical outlook is mixed but not bearish, with a breakout above $0.00001350 offering a clear path higher.

For investors, the key is to monitor open interest trends and whale activity. A sustained increase in open interest, coupled with further token burns, could catalyze a rebound. However, the risk of a breakdown below $0.00001100 remains, especially with 142 trillion unburned tokens posing a supply-side threat, as the Bankless Times article warns.