Is Shiba Inu (SHIB) Poised for a November 2025 Price Rebound?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem has long been a study in volatility, but recent deflationary token burn activity and historical Q4 momentum patterns suggest a potential inflection point for the meme coin. As the token enters November 2025, investors are scrutinizing whether aggressive supply reduction efforts and seasonal trends could catalyze a price rebound after a 16% decline in October, according to a Coinotag analysis.

Deflationary Burns: A Double-Edged Sword

Shiba Inu's token burn program has intensified in Q4 2025, with over 1 million SHIB tokens burned in the first 24 hours of November alone, marking a 139.46% surge in the weekly burn rate to 61 million tokens, as Coinotag reported. This follows an extraordinary 836,955% daily burn rate spike in early November, driven by 920,761 SHIB tokens sent to dead wallets and further reducing the supply by 229 million tokens in a week, according to a Coinotag report. While these efforts underscore community-driven deflationary momentum, the total supply remains stubbornly high at 589.24 trillion tokens, despite over 410 trillion burned since 2020, per a CryptoBasic analysis. Analysts caution that without a more aggressive reduction-targeting the removal of over 1 trillion additional tokens-the impact on price may remain muted, the CryptoBasic piece adds.

The recent burn activity, however, has coincided with positive catalysts. A 208% surge in daily burns to 8 million tokens occurred alongside the filing of the first-ever spot SHIB ETF by a major U.S. firm managing $1.7 trillion in assets, according to a Coinotag report. This institutional interest, coupled with sustained community participation, could amplify the token's scarcity-driven value proposition.

Historical Q4 Momentum: A Mixed Omen

Historical data reveals a pattern of November gains for SHIB, albeit with significant variability. In 2023, the token rose 6.55%, while 2024 saw a dramatic 49.33% surge; Coinotag previously reported these gains. These gains contrast with earlier years of losses, underscoring the token's seasonal volatility. For 2025, the combination of renewed burn activity and ETF-related optimism has positioned November as a critical test.

However, current market conditions present headwinds. As of October 29, SHIB traded at $0.0001018, down 5.5% in a single day, with a market cap of $5.71 billion, according to a CoinEdition article. Daily trading volumes have spiked by over 50%, signaling heightened short-term uncertainty, CoinEdition also noted. While historical Q4 gains offer hope, the path to a sustained rebound will depend on whether the recent deflationary efforts can meaningfully compress supply and attract broader adoption.

The November Outlook: Catalysts and Constraints

The convergence of aggressive token burns and historical Q4 momentum creates a compelling case for cautious optimism. The weekly burn rate of 61 million tokens in early November represents a 139.46% increase, reinforcing the token's deflationary trajectory as reported earlier by Coinotag. Yet, the sheer scale of SHIB's total supply remains a limiting factor. For every 1% reduction in supply, the token's market cap would need to grow exponentially to justify a $0.0001 price target-a scenario that hinges on both sustained burn rates and external catalysts like ETF approval.

Institutional validation, such as the ETF filing, could bridge this gap. If the ETF gains regulatory approval, it may attract a new wave of investors, offsetting the challenges posed by SHIB's massive supply. Meanwhile, the community's ability to maintain burn momentum-particularly through initiatives like the Shiba Inu Burn Contract-will be critical in sustaining price resilience.

Conclusion

Shiba Inu's November 2025 price trajectory hinges on two key factors: the continuation of aggressive token burns and the realization of institutional adoption through the ETF. While historical Q4 gains and recent deflationary efforts provide a foundation for optimism, the token's path to meaningful price appreciation remains fraught with challenges. Investors should monitor burn rates, ETF developments, and broader market sentiment as the ecosystem navigates this pivotal period.