Shiba Inu (SHIB): Has History Just Set Up the Next Major Bull Run?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem has long been a case study in the volatile yet fascinating world of meme coins. As of late 2025, SHIB appears to be at a critical inflection point, with technical and on-chain metrics suggesting a potential breakout. This article analyzes whether history is repeating itself-specifically, whether the catalysts that fueled SHIB's 2021 bull run are now aligning to set the stage for another surge.

Technical Catalysts: Patterns and Resistance Levels

SHIB's price action in late 2025 is forming a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup in technical analysis. The token has consolidated around the $0.0000097 support level, with key resistance levels identified at $0.0000111 and $0.0000129. A confirmed breakout above $0.000009500 could trigger a rally toward $0.00001019 or even the 200-day SMA of $0.00001151 according to technical analysis. The Money Flow Index (MFI) reading of 68 further supports this bullish narrative, indicating strong capital inflows according to technical indicators.

Historically, SHIB's 2021 bull run was marked by a similar breakout pattern on the 4-hour chart, where the price surged beyond $0.00004800 after consolidation. While the current price is significantly lower, the structural similarity in technical setups suggests a potential parallel. If SHIB breaks above $0.00000890, it could test the $0.000010 threshold-a psychologically significant level that could attract broader retail and institutional attention.

On-Chain Metrics: Burn Rates and Ecosystem Growth

On-chain data reveals a mix of caution and optimism. SHIB's burn rate has spiked dramatically, with a 1,822% surge in 24 hours removing over 35 million tokens from circulation according to on-chain data. This aggressive supply reduction mirrors the 2021 bull run, when daily burns averaged 7.235 billion SHIB, contributing to a 41% cumulative supply reduction by December 2021 according to historical data. While the 2025 burn rate is smaller in absolute terms, the rapidity of the spike suggests growing community and exchange-led efforts to tighten supply.

Shibarium, SHIB's Layer-2 solution, has also shown early-stage adoption, with over 1.5 billion transactions and 294,000 accounts according to trading data. This growth in infrastructure and user activity parallels the 2021 bull run, when SHIB's ecosystem expanded rapidly through social media hype and celebrity endorsements according to market analysis. However, 2025's focus on utility-driven initiatives-such as ShibaSwap and Shibarium's dApp development-signals a shift from speculative frenzy to foundational growth.

Historical Parallels and Divergences

The 2021 bull run was fueled by a combination of social media virality, celebrity endorsements (e.g., Elon Musk) according to market reports. By contrast, 2025's catalysts are more technical and on-chain. Whale activity has increased, with 1.06 trillion SHIB tokens moving to exchanges in a 24-hour period according to whale movement data, echoing the 2021 surge in whale transfers. However, 2025's ecosystem is more mature, with Shibarium's transaction volume and wallet growth indicating deeper utility.

A critical divergence lies in market sentiment. In 2021, SHIB's price surged amid a broader crypto bull market. Today, SHIB is trading below $0.0000090 in a range-bound environment, with weak volume and no clear macroeconomic tailwinds. Yet, the recent spike in Open Interest (OI) to $91.77 million suggests leveraged positioning is building, according to market analysis as traders anticipate a directional move.

The Path Forward: Breakout or Breakdown?

The next few weeks will be pivotal. A breakout above $0.000009500 could validate the falling wedge pattern and trigger a rally toward $0.0000176. Conversely, a breakdown below $0.00000680 could see the price test $0.0000075 or $0.00000770 according to technical analysis. The key will be whether the current burn rate and Shibarium adoption can sustain buyer interest.

Historically, SHIB has shown resilience after retesting critical support levels. For instance, the $0.0000080–$0.0000060 range has historically acted as a catalyst for rebounds. If SHIB holds this zone in 2025, it could mirror the 2021 pattern, where retests led to significant rallies.

Conclusion: A Bull Run in the Making?

While SHIB's 2025 trajectory is not without risks-such as regulatory uncertainties and broader market caution-the alignment of technical patterns, on-chain activity, and ecosystem growth suggests a potential breakout. The parallels to 2021 are striking, but the 2025 setup is arguably stronger due to a more developed infrastructure and community-driven burn initiatives.

Investors should closely monitor key resistance levels, burn rate trends, and Shibarium's adoption. If the token can overcome $0.000009500 and sustain volume, SHIB could rekindle the magic of its 2021 bull run. However, as with all crypto assets, patience and risk management remain paramount.