Shiba Inu (SHIB): Why a Bull Run Remains Unlikely Despite Short-Term Stability

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) token has recently exhibited signs of short-term stability, with price consolidations and modest on-chain activity sparking cautious optimism among some investors. However, a deeper analysis of technical and structural metrics reveals a starkly bearish outlook. Despite fleeting bullish signals, SHIB remains trapped in a prolonged bearish cycle driven by technical exhaustion and overwhelming structural dominance. This article dissects the data to explain why a sustained bull run remains improbable in the near term.

Technical Exhaustion: A Market in Decline

SHIB's technical indicators paint a picture of a market struggling to regain momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a critical oscillator for gauging overbought or oversold conditions, has languished in the low to mid-40s in late 2025, signaling weak bullish momentum. While this avoids extreme oversold territory, it underscores a lack of conviction in upward moves. Meanwhile, moving averages-a cornerstone of trend analysis-continue to reinforce bearish sentiment. SHIB remains firmly below key long-term benchmarks, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which have been in a declining trajectory. For instance, the 50-day moving average has seen a -34.82% decline year-to-date, reflecting entrenched downward pressure.

Volume data further compounds the bearish narrative. While SHIB experienced a surge in trading activity in late 2025, with a single-day volume of 9.64 trillion tokens, this spike did not translate into a meaningful price breakout. Instead, it highlights a market caught in a horizontal consolidation phase, where high volume fails to drive directional movement-a classic sign of technical exhaustion.

The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator, exacerbates this concern, with a score of 17 in late 2025 reflecting extreme pessimism. Such conditions often precede prolonged bear markets, as panic selling and liquidity drainage become self-fulfilling cycles.

Structural Dominance: On-Chain Metrics Confirm Weakness

Beyond technical indicators, on-chain data reveals structural challenges for SHIB. Whale activity, a critical barometer for institutional or large-holder sentiment, has been mixed. While mid-2025 saw a net increase of 1.06 trillion SHIB held on exchanges, this accumulation has not translated into price strength. Instead, it suggests large holders are positioning for future opportunities rather than signaling immediate bullish intent. A notable on-chain anomaly in December 2025-a 800% surge in active sending addresses-further complicates the narrative. While this could indicate redistribution or aggressive positioning, the minimal price impact during this surge suggests a lack of market depth.

SHIB's market capitalization rank also tells a grim story. As of November 2025, SHIB holds the #24 position on CoinMarketCap with a market cap of approximately $4.3 billion. However, this ranking is increasingly precarious given the token's Q4 2025 performance. The quarter ended with a -37.3% price drop, driven by monthly losses of -15.2% in October, -16.2% in November, and -11.6% in December. These declines highlight SHIB's inability to compete with larger, more resilient assets in a tightening crypto market. Network flow dominance metrics, which track token movement across exchanges, further confirm stagnation. Despite a large outflow of 45.2 billion SHIB from exchanges in December 2025-potentially signaling accumulation by long-term holders-the broader trend remains bearish.

Short-Term Stability vs. Long-Term Realities

While SHIB has shown brief signs of stability-such as a 25.45% projected rise to $0.00001532 in early September 2025-these are likely to be short-lived. Technical exhaustion and structural dominance create a high barrier to sustained recovery. For a bull run to materialize, SHIB would need to break above key resistance levels, sustain volume-driven momentum, and attract renewed institutional interest. However, the current on-chain and technical landscape suggests these conditions are far from met.

Conclusion

Shiba Inu's short-term stability is a mirage in the context of its broader bearish trajectory. Technical exhaustion, as evidenced by weak RSI readings and declining moving averages, combined with structural dominance metrics like stagnant market cap and bearish on-chain flows, paints a clear picture: SHIB remains trapped in a prolonged bear market. While occasional outflows and price consolidations may spark hope, they lack the conviction required to reverse the coin's downward trend. For investors, the lesson is clear-until SHIB demonstrates consistent strength across both technical and structural metrics, a bull run remains an improbable scenario.