Is Shiba Inu (SHIB) Near a Bottom or a Deeper Correction?

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme token that once captured the crypto world's imagination, now finds itself at a crossroads. As of November 2025, the token is trading in a narrow range, with technical indicators and on-chain data offering conflicting signals. Is SHIB nearing a bottom, or is this merely the prelude to a deeper correction? To answer this, we must dissect the interplay of technical patterns, on-chain accumulation, and ecosystem developments-while acknowledging the risks that remain.

Technical Indicators: A Bearish Short-Term, Bullish Long-Term Dilemma

SHIB's short-term technical outlook remains bearish. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are in decline across multiple timeframes, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28, reflecting widespread investor fear. However, the 4-hour chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, a classic consolidation formation. A clean breakout above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA could propel SHIB toward $0.00001076 and $0.00001129, respectively according to analysis. Crucially, the token must defend the $0.00000950 support level to confirm the base of this pattern. A successful defense could trigger a 15.21% rebound to $0.00001139 by November 30, 2025.

Beyond price action, the Relative Strength Index and MACD have formed bullish divergences, suggesting a potential trend reversal. SHIB's price movement also aligns with a five-wave downtrend followed by a three-wave corrective phase, placing it in wave C of an A-B-C structure-a setup historically associated with upward moves according to technical analysis. A retest of Fibonacci retracement levels could catalyze a 144% rally to $0.0000329.

On-Chain Accumulation: Signs of Seller Exhaustion

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture. While the seven-day mean exchange inflow surged by +6,894.01% in November 2025, this spike-often linked to selling pressure-was not matched by outflows, signaling potential accumulation. Exchange outflows of $107,000 on October 31 and $581,000 in self-custody transfers on November 11 further reinforce this narrative. Whale activity has also intensified, with large holders increasing positions during the downturn according to recent reports. Analysts like Meme Whale argue this accumulation could precede a 11,601% surge to $0.001 over five months, though such projections remain speculative.

However, the token's burn rate-a key supply-side catalyst-has declined sharply. Only 46,597,909 SHIB tokens were burned in the past week, a 94% drop from earlier periods. While ongoing burns enhance scarcity, SHIB's massive circulating supply (over 1 quadrillion tokens) limits immediate price appreciation. For burns to meaningfully impact supply, they must accelerate to a scale that offsets daily trading volume-a tall order according to on-chain analysis.

Ecosystem Developments: Utility vs. Skepticism

SHIB's ecosystem has seen incremental improvements. Shibarium has reduced transaction costs and expanded DeFi integrations. A recent RPC infrastructure migration and a flexible governance model via Doggy DAO aim to bolster decentralization and user participation according to latest updates. Privacy-focused upgrades, including Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) for confidential smart contracts, position Shibarium as a privacy-centric Layer-2 network.

Yet, these developments face headwinds. Shibarium's total value locked has halved in a month, and the token's utility remains overshadowed by its meme-driven origins. While some analysts project SHIB could reach $0.00006392 by 2025 and $0.000321 by 2030, others question whether these milestones will attract meaningful adoption.

The Contrarian Case: A Bottom or a Deeper Correction?

The contrarian argument hinges on SHIB's discounted valuation and ecosystem resilience. Whale accumulation, technical divergences, and on-chain outflows suggest a potential bottom. However, risks persist:
1. Whale Sell-Offs: Large holders have listed significant SHIB on exchanges, with the token trading at 70% below its 2024 peak. A coordinated sell-off could deepen the correction.
2. Macro Sensitivity: SHIB remains highly correlated with broader crypto sentiment. A renewed bear market or regulatory crackdown could negate technical and on-chain optimism.
3. Burn Fatigue: Without sustained large-scale burns, SHIB's supply reduction efforts may fail to drive price appreciation according to on-chain data.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

SHIB's technical and on-chain signals suggest a potential reversal, but the path to a sustained bullish phase is fraught with uncertainty. For contrarian investors, the token's discounted valuation and ecosystem upgrades offer a compelling case-if they can stomach the volatility. However, the risks of a deeper correction, driven by macroeconomic factors or whale activity, cannot be ignored.

In the end, SHIB's fate may hinge on whether its ecosystem can evolve from a meme-driven narrative to a utility-driven one. Until then, the token remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition.