Shiba Inu (SHIB): Assessing the Double Bottom and On-Chain Signals for a Potential Bullish Reversal

Shiba Inu (SHIB), the meme coin that once captured the crypto market's imagination, has entered a critical juncture in late 2025. After a prolonged bearish phase, technical and on-chain indicators are converging to suggest the possibility of a bullish reversal. This article examines the formation of a double bottom pattern, key on-chain signals, and the implications for early-stage accumulation opportunities, while balancing the risks inherent in such a volatile asset.

Technical Analysis: The Double Bottom and Key Levels

SHIB's price action has formed a potential double bottom pattern at a critical support level of $0.000012, a price point aligned with high-time-frame support and the Value Area Low (VAL). This structure, characterized by two failed attempts to break below the support level, signals weakening bearish momentum and growing buyer interest. For the pattern to confirm, SHIB must reclaim the Point of Control (POC), a level representing the highest trading volume in the range. A successful move to the POC would indicate buyers are regaining control, potentially triggering a shift in momentum.

Beyond the POC, the Value Area High (VAH) represents the next major upside target. A breakout above $0.000013 would validate the reversal, with further resistance levels at $0.00001345 and $0.00001445 acting as catalysts for a broader rally. However, the bearish structure remains intact until these levels are convincingly breached, and a failure to hold the $0.000012 support could invalidate the pattern entirely.

On-Chain Signals: Accumulation and Network Activity

On-chain data provides mixed but intriguing signals. Smart money investors-large-scale holders-have re-entered the SHIB market, after a year-long absence, with notable withdrawals from exchanges such as the 53.59 billion SHIB moved by a high-value wallet. This accumulation activity suggests confidence in the current price level and hints at a potential supply shock as sell-side liquidity decreases.

However, broader on-chain metrics remain bearish. The net flow for SHIB has been negative, with a recent outflow of approximately -64.9 billion SHIB, though low trading volume (around $132.06 million in the last 24 hours) limits the significance of this metric. The NVT ratio, a valuation tool that correlates network value with transaction volume, has not shown strong signals for an imminent breakout, reflecting subdued network activity. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 17 (Extreme Fear), a contrarian indicator that could foreshadow a rebound if sentiment normalizes.

Risks and Considerations

While the technical and on-chain signals are encouraging, several risks persist. SHIB remains below all major moving averages, and its price has struggled to break through the 20-day EMA resistance. The lack of a clear correlation between network activity and price movements-despite a 192 billion SHIB outflow from exchanges-highlights the uncertainty surrounding SHIB's near-term trajectory. Additionally, the token's fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4.25 billion suggests it is still far from reflecting its theoretical maximum market cap, but this also underscores the speculative nature of its valuation.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

For early-stage investors, SHIB presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The confluence of a double bottom pattern, smart money accumulation, and extreme fear sentiment creates a compelling case for a potential bullish reversal. However, the bearish trend remains intact until key resistance levels are convincingly breached, and on-chain metrics like the NVT ratio have yet to confirm a shift in momentum.

Traders should monitor the $0.000013 level as a critical inflection point. A breakout here could trigger a rally toward $0.00001445, while a breakdown below $0.000012 would reinforce bearish sentiment. Given the asset's volatility, position sizing and risk management remain paramount.