¿Se encuentra Shiba Inu en un punto de inflexión, en medio del aumento de las tasas de incendio y la resiliencia de la comunidad?

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) ecosystem has long been a study in extremes-volatile price swings, speculative fervor, and a deflationary strategy that oscillates between promise and irrelevance. As 2025 draws to a close, the token's recent burn activity, liquidity dynamics, and community sentiment suggest a potential inflection point. But whether this marks a sustainable recovery or another speculative flash in the pan depends on dissecting the interplay between deflationary mechanics, weak liquidity conditions, and the resilience of its decentralized community.

Deflationary Momentum: A Double-Edged Sword

Shiba Inu's deflationary model hinges on token burns designed to reduce its astronomically high circulating supply. In late December 2025, SHIB saw a 1,567% surge in burn rate, with 1.1 million tokens destroyed in 24 hours. This followed a 3,915,071% spike on December 19, removing 21.6 million SHIB from circulation. By January 1, 2026, the burn rate exploded by 10,731%, with 173 million tokens burned in a single day-largely via a single transaction to dead wallets.

However, the economic impact of these burns remains muted. At $0.00000757 per token, the value of the January 1 burns totaled just $1.31 million, a fraction of SHIB's $12.9 billion market cap. This highlights a critical flaw: while the burn rate metrics are impressive on paper, the actual capital locked in these burns is negligible. Analysts like Changelly predict a 137% price increase for SHIB in 2026, but such optimism clashes with Binance's more conservative 6.61% projection, underscoring the market's fragmented expectations.

The inconsistency in burn activity further complicates the narrative. December 2025 saw a 96.96% drop in weekly burns, while January 2026's initial surge was followed by a 97.83% decline in the subsequent 24 hours. This volatility raises questions about the sustainability of SHIB's deflationary strategy. Without sustained, large-scale burns, the token's supply reduction efforts risk becoming symbolic rather than transformative.

Liquidity Conditions: A Fragile Foundation

Despite the erratic burn rate, SHIB's liquidity profile has shown signs of improvement. In early January 2026, 24-hour trading volume surged to $360 million, a 162.70% increase from the prior day. Whale transactions also spiked by 111%, suggesting institutional interest in a token with a $12.9 billion market cap that allows large orders to execute with minimal slippage.

Yet, liquidity gains are not without caveats. SHIB's price resilience-up 9.66% in one 24-hour period despite a 90% drop in burn activity- demonstrates some investor confidence. However, this resilience appears decoupled from the token's deflationary mechanics. For example, a 3.2 million SHIB burn in early January 2026 coincided with a 17% drop in the overall burn rate, indicating that liquidity improvements may be driven more by speculative trading than by supply-side fundamentals.

The broader market environment also poses challenges. SHIB's circulating supply remains at 589.24 trillion tokens, a figure so vast that even aggressive burns struggle to create meaningful scarcity. While Shibarium, the project's Layer-2 solution, aims to allocate transaction fees to burn wallets, its impact on liquidity and price remains unproven.

Community Sentiment: The ShibArmy's Resilience

If SHIB's deflationary and liquidity metrics are mixed, its community-driven ecosystem offers a counterbalance. As of December 2025, SHIB's Discord and Telegram communities boasted 145,922 and 143,165 members, respectively, reflecting a decentralized governance model that prioritizes grassroots engagement. The ShibArmy, the project's informal community, has also shown resilience, countering narratives that SHIB is "dead".

Exchange netflow data further underscores this resilience. On December 25, 2025, SHIB's netflow stood at -118.6 trillion tokens, signaling reduced selling pressure and increased buying activity. This coincided with a price increase from $0.000006992 to $0.000007238, suggesting that community-driven demand can temporarily offset weak fundamentals.

However, social media engagement alone cannot sustain long-term value. Derivatives activity, for instance, saw open interest (OI) for SHIB futures hit $75.76 million by late December 2025, a 8% increase in 24 hours. While this indicates heightened market participation, it also reflects speculative positioning that could backfire if burn activity falters.

Is This an Inflection Point?

The data paints a paradox: SHIB's deflationary burns are accelerating in magnitude but not in consistency, liquidity is improving but remains fragile, and community sentiment is resilient yet speculative. For SHIB to achieve a true inflection point, these elements must align.

A key test will be whether Shibarium's adoption can institutionalize SHIB's utility beyond meme coin status. If transaction fees from the Layer-2 network are consistently burned, the token's supply reduction could gain momentum. Similarly, sustained whale activity and derivatives participation might stabilize liquidity.

Yet, the risks are clear. If burn rates continue to fluctuate and institutional interest wanes, SHIB could revert to its historical pattern of speculative hype followed by stagnation. The token's price, currently trading near $0.000010, remains far from its $1 dream, and the math of its deflationary model has yet to justify such a leap.

Conclusion

Shiba Inu stands at a crossroads. Its recent burn surges and liquidity gains hint at a potential inflection point, but the lack of sustained deflationary momentum and the speculative nature of its community-driven recovery pose significant risks. For investors, the critical question is whether SHIB's ecosystem can evolve from a meme-driven narrative to a utility-driven asset. Until then, the token remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition-one where optimism and volatility are inextricably linked.