SHIB Price Analysis for September 29: Navigating Short-Term Momentum and On-Chain Signals

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) token has long been a barometer of speculative fervor in the cryptocurrency market, and its September 2025 performance has been no exception. As the month draws to a close, investors are scrutinizing on-chain metrics and technical indicators to gauge whether SHIB is poised for a rebound or further consolidation. The data reveals a complex narrative: while exchange inflows and whale activity suggest short-term selling pressure, large-scale outflows and accumulation patterns hint at a potential bullish reversal.

On-Chain Activity: A Tale of Two Trends

The on-chain landscape for SHIB in late September has been marked by conflicting signals. According to a Coinotag report, exchange inflows surged to 626 billion SHIB in the last three days of the month, with active sending addresses rising by 1.04%-a sign that holders are moving tokens to exchanges for potential selling. This has pushed exchange reserves to 86.08 trillion SHIB, amplifying concerns about immediate liquidity risks.

However, a deeper dive into the data uncovers a more nuanced picture. On September 9 alone, over 2.6 trillion SHIB tokens left centralized exchanges, marking one of the largest outflows in the token's history, according to a Coinotag analysis. This movement, interpreted by analysts as "diamond hands" behavior, suggests that large holders are shifting tokens to cold storage or private wallets, reducing short-term selling pressure. Whale activity further complicates the narrative: a vTrader report noted Wintermute's transfer of 11.37 billion SHIB to Coinbase on August 31, which has fueled speculation about strategic market positioning.

Technical Indicators: Consolidation and Breakout Potential

From a technical standpoint, SHIB has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with key support near $0.000013 and resistance around $0.000014, according to a Market Periodical analysis. A breakout above the 200-day EMA-currently at $0.0000135-could signal a resumption of bullish momentum, particularly if accompanied by a surge in trading volume. Recent on-chain metrics, including a declining NVT ratio and increased accumulation at $0.000014, reinforce the possibility of a near-term rally, according to a CryptoNews analysis.

Historical backtests of SHIB's symmetrical triangle breakout pattern from 2022 to 2025 reveal mixed outcomes. For instance, the pattern predicted a notable upward trend from late 2022 to early 2023, aligning with increased investor interest. However, a breakout in June 2023 failed to sustain momentum, leading to a subsequent decline. This underscores the pattern's utility in identifying potential reversal points but also highlights its limitations in guaranteeing long-term success, as noted by the Market Periodical.

Yet, the token's technical weakness cannot be ignored. SHIB remains below its 200-day EMA, and the 24-hour trading volume has been lackluster, averaging $150 million-a bearish sign in a market where liquidity is king, according to a CoinMarketCap analysis. The Fear & Greed Index, at 43, underscores lingering bearish sentiment, even as some analysts argue that SHIB could test $0.000017 if it breaks above $0.000016, a possibility discussed in CryptoNews coverage.

Burn Rate and Market Sentiment: A Mixed Bag

SHIB's deflationary mechanics have shown mixed results in September. A Coinspeaker report noted a single-day burn rate spike of 1,431% on September 19 reduced the circulating supply by over 1 million tokens, yet the price fell by 2.39% amid declining volume. While weekly burns increased by 4.5%, the overall impact on demand remains limited, with competing meme coins like PEPE and BONK siphoning capital away from SHIB, as observed in CoinMarketCap's analysis.

Compounding these challenges, the delisting of SHIB derivatives on BitMEX and MEXC has reduced liquidity, exacerbating volatility, a trend CoinMarketCap has highlighted. This has left investors in a precarious position: while accumulation by whales and outflows suggest long-term confidence, the immediate market environment remains fragile.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture

SHIB stands at a crossroads. On-chain metrics and technical indicators point to a potential breakout, but broader market conditions-including liquidity constraints and bearish sentiment-pose significant hurdles. For now, the token's price action will hinge on whether it can sustain volume above $200 million and break through the $0.000014 resistance level. If it fails to do so, the risk of a pullback to $0.000011 looms. Investors should monitor exchange inflows/outflows and whale activity closely, as these will likely dictate SHIB's trajectory in the coming weeks.