Shentu/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined sharply from 0.355 to 0.3307 over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• High volume was observed during the bearish breakdown in early overnight trading.
• RSI and MACD confirm bearish momentum with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded after 0.343 key level broke, confirming bearish bias.
• Bollinger Bands suggest a potential short-term rebound near the lower band.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3533 on 2025-09-24 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.3307 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 0.3565 and the low was 0.3247. Total volume reached 1,617,535.3 and notional turnover was $538,262.8 (approximate). A sustained bearish bias emerged, particularly after the breakdown below 0.343.

Structure & Formations

A bearish breakdown pattern emerged as price fell below the key support level of 0.343, followed by a continuation of selling pressure into the 0.3307 level. Several bearish engulfing patterns appeared in the late evening and early overnight session. A doji formed around 0.3322 during morning hours, indicating indecision but not a reversal. Price appears to be consolidating near 0.3307, with strong resistance at 0.333 and potential support at 0.328. This zone may see increased volatility or consolidation over the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period 15-min) show a strong bearish alignment, with the 50-period line below the 20-period. On a daily scale, the 50, 100, and 200-period lines are also in a bearish slope, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. Price has remained below the 50-period line for the entire 24-hour period, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

MACD & RSI

MACD indicates a strong bearish momentum with the line significantly below zero and diverging from price. RSI has fallen to the 35–38 range, suggesting the market is not yet oversold but has experienced a sharp decline. While not in extreme oversold territory, the RSI is approaching the 30–35 range, which may trigger a short-term bounce or consolidation in the near term. A reversal above the 50 RSI level is unlikely without a strong bullish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly as the price moved lower, reflecting increased volatility. Price is currently sitting near the lower band at 0.3307, indicating a potential short-term bounce. A break below the lower band would confirm a further breakdown and open the door for a test of 0.328. However, the bands suggest that the market may consolidate in the near term, especially if volume begins to wane.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume was observed during the overnight session, particularly around the 0.343 level, confirming the breakdown. As price moved lower, volume remained steady but did not surge, which suggests the bearish pressure is not yet exhausted. Turnover spiked during the breakdown but has since stabilized, indicating that the market may be entering a phase of consolidation or short-term equilibrium.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high (0.3565) and swing low (0.3247) show 0.343 as the 38.2% level, 0.337 as the 50% level, and 0.330 as the 61.8% level. The current price near 0.3307 aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which may act as a key support or trigger a bounce. A break below 0.330 could see the price test the 0.328 level, which is a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest hypothesis could involve a mean-reversion strategy triggered when price approaches the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the lower Bollinger Band. Given the strong bearish momentum and volume during the breakdown, a short-term bounce may occur if the price stabilizes at 0.3307–0.3322. Traders may consider a long position with a stop-loss placed below 0.330 for a potential rebound. Alternatively, a bearish continuation could be traded if the 0.328 level breaks with confirmation by volume and RSI.