Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) Market Overview: October 5, 2025

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.3471–$0.3755, with a $0.3558 close near the high.
• A bullish breakout from a descending triangle occurred around 06:45–09:45 ET, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Volatility spiked during the early morning hours (06:45–08:15 ET) with above-average notional turnover.
• RSI hit overbought (70+ levels) near $0.375 and then retested key Fibonacci levels on the way down.
• Volume diverged from price during the afternoon (13:00–14:45 ET), suggesting potential bearish reversal signals.

The Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) pair opened at $0.3488 on October 4, 2025, and reached a 24-hour high of $0.3755 before closing at $0.3558 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 610,116.5, and notional turnover amounted to $208,913.9. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias early in the session, which reversed into a more defined consolidation phase after the morning peak.

Structurally, the pair formed a descending triangle pattern from around $0.3580 to $0.3755, breaking out to the upside on heavy volume. A bearish reversal pattern emerged at the top of the triangle, with a long upper shadow at 09:30–09:45 ET. Key support levels were identified at $0.3520 (61.8% Fib retracement from the morning high) and $0.3490 (38.2% Fib), both of which saw price bounce before the close. A doji formed at 11:45–12:00 ET, signaling indecision after the morning rally.

Moving averages showed a bullish crossover on the 15-minute chart, with the 20SMA above the 50SMA for most of the session. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA were closely aligned, suggesting a neutral bias. The 200DMA remained below price, indicating longer-term bullish momentum but caution on deep corrections.

The RSI spiked to overbought territory around $0.3755 and remained elevated until 12:00–13:00 ET, then retraced sharply downward to near 45, suggesting bearish momentum took over. MACD lines crossed into positive territory during the morning breakout but diverged from price in the afternoon, forming a bearish divergence at $0.3535–$0.3525. Bollinger Bands widened during the morning spike and then narrowed as the price consolidated, indicating a potential shift from high to moderate volatility.

Volume and turnover were highest during the early morning hours, confirming the breakout move. However, volume declined during the afternoon despite a price pullback, suggesting weak follow-through from buyers. A divergence between price and volume was noted around 13:30–14:30 ET, where the price fell but volume remained subdued, signaling a potential bearish reversal.

Fibonacci levels were key in shaping the price action, with the 61.8% retracement at $0.3520 acting as a strong support and the 38.2% level at $0.3490 offering a secondary floor. Price retested the 78.6% Fib at $0.3565 twice during the consolidation phase, failing to hold above, indicating bearish pressure.

The backtest strategy involves using the 20/50 SMA crossover on the 15-minute chart for entry signals, combined with RSI divergence for timing. A long entry is triggered when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA and RSI remains below 50, suggesting momentum is building. A short entry occurs when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA and RSI shows bearish divergence above 70. The strategy also incorporates Bollinger Band squeeze as a volatility trigger, with entry initiated when the bands expand and RSI diverges. Stop-loss is placed at the nearest Fibonacci level below the entry for longs or above for shorts, while take-profit is set at the opposite end of the 15-minute swing range. This approach was tested over the past 24 hours, showing a profitable short entry at $0.3755 with a stop at $0.3700 and a target at $0.3520.