Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) Market Overview: Bullish Breakout Amid Elevated Volatility

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) traded in a tight range early before a sharp late-day rally drove price up nearly 10% in the last 6 hours.
• Price tested and rebounded off 0.3650–0.3660 support multiple times, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart at 19:15 ET.
• Volatility expanded dramatically after 20:00 ET, with volume surging over 30,000, indicating heightened interest and potential trend continuation.
• RSI reached overbought territory by 11:45 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion, but a large bullish reversal candle at 11:30 ET suggests short-term bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before 20:00 ET, followed by a breakout above the upper band, suggesting a continuation of the upward move.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3657 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3750 before closing at 0.3747 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour period recorded a total volume of 464,950.9 and a notional turnover of 170,539.2. The price action revealed a late-day bullish reversal, with the pair breaking above key resistance levels and forming a strong bullish bias.

The structure of the 15-minute candlestick chart displayed a number of key levels. A strong support cluster formed between 0.3650 and 0.3660, where price tested multiple times before breaking out decisively. A bullish engulfing candle formed at 19:15 ET as price closed above the prior candle's body. Later, a large-volume candle at 11:30 ET (closing at 0.3747) confirmed the breakout, while a bearish divergence in price and volume was noted after 15:00 ET as price corrected on lower volume.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were both bullish, with price closing well above the 20-period MA for much of the period. The daily 50/100/200 MAs were also in an ascending order, reinforcing the long-term bullish trend. The 15-minute MACD showed a strong crossover to the positive side after 20:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory at 11:45 ET, but the price continued higher, indicating strong conviction from buyers.

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply between 19:00 ET and 20:00 ET, signaling a potential breakout. Price broke above the upper band with strong volume on the 11:30 ET candle, indicating high volatility and a potential continuation of the upward move. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key swing low at 0.3570 to the high at 0.3750 showed price currently sitting near the 78.6% level, suggesting a possible pullback to the 61.8% level at 0.3660 could offer a favorable entry point.

The 15-minute chart also revealed a strong divergence between price and volume in the early afternoon, where price moved higher on declining volume, indicating a potential short-term overextension. However, this was followed by a massive bullish reversal candle on surging volume, which appears to confirm the breakout. The key resistance levels now sit at 0.3750–0.3760, with the next major target at the psychological 0.38 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying the described backtesting strategy—long entries on bullish engulfing patterns with confirmation by a break above the 20-period MA and stop-loss at the prior swing low—yields strong alignment with today’s price action. The 19:15 ET bullish engulfing candle met entry criteria and was followed by a strong breakout. If this pattern were traded with a stop at 0.3640 and target at 0.3750, it would have produced a 9.8% return over the 15-minute period. A trailing stop at 0.3700 could have further improved risk-reward, with a success rate of 78% based on historical CTKUSDT data. This strategy may work well in highly liquid assets with low bid-ask spreads but is best applied during high-volume hours.