Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Oversold Conditions Signal Potential Rebound

• Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) formed a bearish trend with a 24-hour low of 0.349 and closed near the session low.
• Momentum weakened with a falling RSI and negative MACD, suggesting continued bearish bias.
• Volatility remained stable but price traded near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions.
• Volume surged at key support levels, confirming distribution patterns and potential for consolidation.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted 0.362 and 0.355 as potential pivots ahead of 0.349 support.

Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) opened at 0.3611 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and traded within a range of 0.3655 (high) to 0.349 (low) over the 24-hour window, closing at 0.3512 as of 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. The total volume for the period was 648,139.1, while the total turnover amounted to approximately $229,823. Price action has shown a consistent bearish bias, with support levels consolidating near 0.350–0.352 and resistance at 0.362–0.364.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart reveal a series of bearish engulfing patterns, especially in the early afternoon hours on 2025-10-03 and late into the night. A bearish continuation was reinforced by a long upper wick near the open and a series of doji patterns forming near 0.355. Notable support levels emerged at 0.352 and 0.349, while resistance appeared to hold at 0.362–0.364. These levels may serve as key decision points for the near term, with a break below 0.349 signaling further downside potential.

The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, indicating short-term bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) show a bearish bias as well, with price trading below all three. This suggests that Shentu/Tether may remain under pressure in the near term. The MACD indicator has shown a negative crossover with bearish divergence in late trading hours, while the RSI dropped into oversold territory near 28. This may hint at short-term mean reversion or a potential bounce off 0.350. However, without a strong reversal candle or a breakout above 0.355, the bearish trend appears intact.

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility with price trading near the lower band for most of the session. A contraction in the bands was observed in the early morning hours before an expansion in the afternoon, indicating a potential build-up of volatility. The price remains within the bands but shows a bias toward the lower end, suggesting that oversold conditions may not immediately reverse unless bullish catalysts emerge. The recent Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% at 0.357, 61.8% at 0.362) align with key resistance levels, further reinforcing the significance of these areas for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting CTKUSDT when the 20-period EMA crosses below the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A target could be set at the next major support level or 1.5–2.0x the RSI oversold threshold. This setup would align with the observed bearish momentum, key resistance breakdowns, and overbought conditions. Given the current price structure, a similar approach may be effective in the next 24–48 hours, assuming no exogenous bullish news or sudden volume spikes.