Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-10-08

• Price declined from 0.3664 to 0.3589 amid mixed volume
• RSI indicates oversold conditions with potential for bounce
• Volume spiked midday as price tested key support at 0.355
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near lower band
• Fibonacci support at 0.3534 appears relevant for near-term direction

The Shentu/Tether (CTKUSDT) pair opened at 0.3571 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3589 by the same time on 2025-10-08. The 24-hour range was 0.3664 to 0.3520, with total volume reaching 755,244.3 and turnover at approximately $267,000.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern reveals a bearish bias, particularly in the early morning session where a long bearish candle formed following a brief bullish reversal. A key support level appears to be consolidating at 0.355–0.356, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming around that level. A doji in the early afternoon suggests indecision before a recovery attempt.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early in the session, confirming a bearish signal. By late afternoon, the price began to trade closer to the 50-period line, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 0.3595 and 100-period MA at 0.3615 indicate that the pair is trading slightly below the mid-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early on, confirming a bearish momentum phase. However, the RSI reached a reading of 29 by late afternoon, entering oversold territory, which may suggest a potential reversal. The histogram showed a shrinking bearish divergence in the last few hours, indicating weakening downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the early morning volatility, with the price dropping to the lower band around 0.352. By late afternoon, volatility contracted slightly, with the price trading near the lower band again. This suggests continued bearish pressure but with possible support at the lower boundary.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning, coinciding with the 0.352 support test, and again in the afternoon, following a bullish reversal. Turnover confirmed the price action, with no major divergences observed. The late afternoon rally showed moderate volume, indicating limited conviction but not necessarily bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 0.3520 to 0.3664, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 0.3594, which the price approached and tested in the late afternoon before consolidating. The 38.2% level at 0.3617 also saw some resistance, indicating that a move above that may require stronger buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying key Fibonacci retracement levels and using RSI as a confirmation tool for potential reversals. In this case, the 61.8% level at 0.3594 was closely approached, and RSI indicated oversold conditions. A backtest using these levels as entry triggers, combined with a 2% stop loss below the entry, could offer a high-probability short-term trade if the price holds. This aligns with the observed price action and reinforces the technical setup for a potential bounce.