Sensus Healthcare Plunged 35%—What Storm Clouds Loom Over Reimbursement Outlook?

Summary
• Sensus Healthcare (SRTS) slumped 35.33% to $3.46, breaching its 52-week low of $3.12
• Earnings call revealed Q2 revenue drop to $7.3M vs. $9.2M in 2024, with net loss of $1M
• Medicare LCD targeting ultrasound use with SRT 100 vision systems stalled domestic sales
• RSI at 69.2 suggests overbought conditions amid bearish short-term trend
• Options chain shows high leverage ratios (up to 690%) and volatile implied volatility (78.94%)

The market’s brutal selloff in SRTS reflects a perfect storm of regulatory uncertainty, declining margins, and stalled sales momentum. While the company highlighted international expansion and MDSAP certification as growth catalysts, the Medicare LCD and revenue contraction have triggered a liquidity crisis. Traders now face a critical juncture: Will the 52-week low hold, or is this a buying opportunity for those betting on regulatory clarity?

Medicare LCD and Revenue Collapse Fuel Panic Sell-Off
Sensus Healthcare’s 35% intraday plunge stems from a confluence of regulatory and financial headwinds. The Medicare LCD targeting ultrasound use with SRT 100 vision systems has created immediate uncertainty, stalling domestic sales and eroding investor confidence. Compounding this, Q2 revenue fell 21% to $7.3M, with gross margin collapsing to 39.7% from 58.7% in 2024. The net loss of $1M versus $1.6M net income last year underscores deteriorating profitability. While CEO Joe Sardano emphasized optimism about CMS reimbursement changes, the earnings call revealed a 27% increase in FDA treatment volume was insufficient to offset capital sales declines. The stock’s collapse to $3.46—just $0.34 above its 52-week low—reflects a market pricing in worst-case scenarios for reimbursement delays and margin compression.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Bets Amid Volatility
• RSI: 69.2 (overbought in downtrend)
• MACD: 0.205 (bullish divergence) vs. Signal Line 0.175
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $3.46 near lower band ($3.87) suggesting oversold conditions
• 200D MA: $5.79 (price at 38% discount)
• Support/Resistance: 30D support at $4.58, 200D support at $4.66

Top Options Bets:
• SRTS20250919C4 (Call, $4 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 78.94% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.348 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.005 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.395 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 475 (liquid)
- Leverage: 18.17%
- Payoff at 5% downside (3.34): $0.00 (strike above current price)
- Why it stands out: High gamma and IV make this call ideal for a rebound above $4, leveraging rapid price swings.

• SRTS20260116C3 (Call, $3 strike, 1/16 expiry):
- IV: 66.54% (moderate volatility)
- Delta: 0.719 (strong directional bias)
- Theta: -0.002 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.220 (moderate sensitivity)
Payoff at 5% downside (3.34): $0.04 (in-the-money)
Why it stands out: Long-dated, in-the-money call offers downside protection while retaining leverage for a gradual recovery.

Trading Setup: Aggressive bulls should target a break above $4.58 (30D support) to validate a short-term rebound. Cautious investors may short the SRTS20250919P3 put (delta -0.04) if the stock tests $3.12, but liquidity is negligible. The 200D MA at $5.79 remains a distant target, requiring a 66% rally.

Backtest Sensus Healthcare Stock Performance
The strategy of buying the SRTS after a -35% intraday plunge has shown favorable performance. The backtest data indicates a 3-day win rate of 55.81%, a 10-day win rate of 53.13%, and a 30-day win rate of 58.14%. This suggests that the strategy has a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 9.87%, which occurred on day 59, further indicating the strategy's potential for gains following the intraday plunge.

Reimbursement Clarity or Collapse: What’s Next for SRTS?
Sensus Healthcare’s 35% plunge has created a binary scenario: regulatory clarity on Medicare reimbursement could reignite momentum, while prolonged uncertainty risks further margin compression. The 52-week low at $3.12 is now a critical psychological level—breaking below $3.30 would validate a bearish case. Conversely, a rebound above $4.58 (30D support) could signal a short-term bottom. Medtronic (MDT), the sector leader, rose 1.68% today, highlighting SRTS’s divergence from broader healthcare equipment trends. Investors should monitor the CMS LCD’s fate and Q3 capital sales guidance. For now, the SRTS20260116C3 call offers a balanced bet for a gradual recovery, while the SRTS20250919C4 is a high-risk, high-reward play for a near-term rebound. Action: Watch for $3.12 breakdown or a decisive close above $4.58.