Senate version of Trump tax-cut bill to add $3.3 trillion to US debt over next decade, CBO says

Senate version of Trump tax-cut bill to add $3.3 trillion to US debt over next decade, CBO says

The Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which includes Trump's signature tax cuts, is set to increase the federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This projection contrasts sharply with the White House Council of Economic Advisers' (CEA) optimistic estimates of deficit reduction through economic growth and other policies.

The CBO's analysis, released earlier this month, found that the Senate bill would add $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, even when accounting for economic growth. The CEA, however, predicted a reduction of between $2.1 trillion and $2.3 trillion, attributing this to tax cut-driven economic growth [1]. The CEA also estimated that tariffs and other spending cuts would boost federal coffers by $3.3 trillion, while regulatory rollbacks and energy reform would shave up to $3.7 trillion off the deficit.

Nonpartisan estimates, such as those from the CBO, often differ from the CEA's projections due to varying assumptions about economic growth and the impact of policy changes. The CBO's analysis takes into account the soaring costs of interest on the US national debt, which could increase the deficit by about $3.4 trillion over the next 10 years [2].

The Senate is currently grappling with competing interests over the bill, with fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) demanding significant deficit reduction. Meanwhile, the White House and GOP leadership are pushing to get the bill to Trump's desk by Independence Day, despite these concerns [1].

References:
[1] https://nypost.com/2025/06/25/us-news/white-house-steps-up-big-beautiful-bill-push-predicts-deficit-cut-of-more-than-2t/
[2] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/06/28/trump-tax-bill-trade-deficits/