SEIJPY Market Overview: Strong Bullish Momentum Amid High Volatility

• Price surged 23.8% in 24 hours, closing near intraday high of 50.08
• High volatility and expanding Bollinger Bands signal increasing momentum
• RSI near overbought and MACD positive divergence suggest caution
• Volume surged at key breakout points, confirming bullish move
• 15-min chart shows bullish engulfing and continuation patterns

Price Summary and Key Metrics

Sei/Yen (SEIJPY) opened at 45.52 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, surged to 50.08, touched a low of 45.36, and closed at 50.08 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour volume reached 504,285 units, while total turnover was approximately 23,335,544.0 JPY, reflecting strong institutional and retail participation in the bullish move.

Structural Support and Resistance

The 24-hour OHLCV data indicates strong bullish pressure, especially after the 19:00–22:00 ET window, where SEIJPY broke above prior resistance at 48.95 and surged to 49.38 before consolidation. Key support levels are now 48.75 and 48.6, with resistance at 50.13 and the next likely level at 50.80–51.00. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 17:30 ET, confirming the breakout.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the last 6 hours, signaling increased volatility. Price remained within the bands for most of the day but spent the final hour above the upper band, suggesting continued momentum. A volatility contraction may follow after this sharp move, potentially leading to a pullback or a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both positive and trending upward. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend is in place.

Momentum and RSI Dynamics

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought levels (70+) during the 14:00–15:00 ET window, suggesting caution for overextended positions. However, price continued higher, indicating strong conviction. The MACD histogram turned positive and remains expanding, suggesting that upward momentum is not yet exhausted but may slow soon.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key 45.36–49.38 swing show 61.8% at 48.16 and 78.6% at 49.05. The 100% target is near 49.38, which was previously a high before the consolidation phase. The price now appears to be testing the next Fibonacci extension level at 50.38–50.60.

Volume and Turnover Correlation

Volume spiked sharply at the 19:30 and 20:15 ET timeframes, confirming the 48.92–49.38 surge. A key divergence occurred at 21:30 ET when the price made a new high but the volume declined, suggesting the market may be consolidating. The final hour of the period showed high-volume bullish continuation, with 12985.0 units traded at the 13:45–14:00 ET window.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong 15-minute bullish momentum, a backtesting strategy could be designed around RSI overbought conditions and volume confirmation. For instance, a long entry could be triggered when RSI crosses above 60 with a bullish engulfing pattern and a 15-minute volume spike. A stop-loss could be placed below the nearest support, while a profit target could be set at the next Fibonacci extension level. This approach aligns with the observed patterns in the last 24 hours, leveraging continuation and breakout signals.