SEIJPY Market Overview: Bullish Consolidation and Key Resistance Levels

Summary
• Price surged 13.5% on 24-hour high volatility and volume spikes.
• Bullish consolidation above 27.60 suggests short-term support holds.
• RSI and MACD signal sustained momentum, but overbought risks loom.
• Bollinger Band expansion indicates heightened volatility.
• Fibonacci levels at 28.35 and 28.85 may become pivotal in next 24 hours.

Opening Narrative

SEIJPY opened at 26.27 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET and closed at 27.39 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 29.92 and a low of 26.19. The pair traded on a total volume of 916,699.0 and a notional turnover of 25,009,079.7, signaling significant activity and momentum in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure of SEIJPY shows a strong bullish bias, particularly after the 2025-11-08 11:15 ET candle that formed a large bullish engulfing pattern. This candle marked a reversal from a downward trend, with the high at 29.16 and close at 29.16, followed by a test at 28.92 in the next session. Key support levels appear at 27.60, 27.33, and 26.91, with 27.60 showing strong consolidation over the last 12 hours. Resistance levels include 28.31, 28.45, and the recent high of 29.92. A breakout above 29.92 could signal a strong continuation of the bullish phase.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is crossing above the 50-period SMA, indicating a bullish crossover. The 50-period SMA sits near 28.25, providing a dynamic support level. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMAs are diverging, with the 50-period moving above the 200-period, suggesting a potential trend reversal to the upside. The RSI is currently at 68, indicating overbought territory but not yet signaling a correction. MACD is positive and trending upward, reinforcing the bullish momentum. The 50-period EMA is approaching 28.35, a potential trigger for further buying.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

SEIJPY has seen a marked expansion in Bollinger Bands over the last 48 hours, with the 20-period band width reaching over 1.25. This expansion indicates heightened volatility and suggests that the market is testing both upper and lower boundaries. The recent candle at 29.16 closed near the upper band, signaling a potential continuation or possible reversion to the mean. The middle band is currently at 28.42, aligning with the 50-period SMA, reinforcing the idea of a key support/resistance cluster.

Volume and Turnover

Volume has surged to over 494,780 in the last 24 hours, particularly in the 11:00–12:00 ET window where a large volume of 494,780 was recorded on the 29.49–29.16 candle. This volume confirms the strength of the recent price move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, with the highest being on the 11:15–11:30 ET candle at 29.49. Price and volume are aligned, showing no divergence, which supports the continuation of the bullish trend. However, a sharp pullback with high volume could signal a distribution phase if it breaks below 27.60.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low at 26.19 and high at 29.92 show key levels to watch:
- 27.35 (23.6%) – currently acting as a consolidation area.
- 28.35 (38.2%) – the next level of resistance.
- 28.85 (50%) – a potential pivot for continuation or pullback.
- 29.27 (61.8%) – a critical resistance level for the next phase of the move.
Price appears to be consolidating at the 38.2% level, with potential to test the 50% and 61.8% levels in the next 24 hours, depending on order flow and sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

To build a robust backtest for SEIJPY, the strategy could focus on detecting the Bullish Engulfing pattern, as seen in the 11:15–11:30 ET candle. Assuming the universe is limited to SEIJPY, entry would be triggered at the open of the next bar after the pattern forms. The exit would occur at the close of the first bar whose close is above the engulfing candle's high of 29.16. If no such bar occurs within the 24-hour period, the trade would be closed at the last bar's close. The strategy would assume 100% capital allocation per trade, with no simultaneous positions. Price entries use the “open” price, and exits use the “close” price. The backtest horizon would run from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08, covering key bullish and bearish phases.