Seer's Proteograph Surge: Buy the Momentum or Beware the Risks?

The biotech instrumentation space is on fire, and Seer, Inc. (SEER) has positioned its Proteograph platform as a potential disruptor in protein analysis. After reporting a 37% jump in Q1 2025 revenue to $4.2 million—a figure that outpaced even its own expectations—the company now faces a critical question: Is this surge a sign of sustainable momentum, or is the $17M–$18M annual guidance overhyped optimism? Let’s dissect the data to find out.

The Q1 Surge: A Breakthrough or a Flash in the Pan?

Seer’s Q1 revenue soared to $4.2 million, up from $3.07 million in Q1 2024, driven by a landmark 10,000-sample contract secured through its partnership with Discovery Life Sciences. This deal highlights growing demand for high-resolution proteomics tools like the Proteograph, which enables researchers to analyze thousands of proteins simultaneously—a capability critical for drug discovery and biomarker identification.

The gross margin also improved to 49% in Q1, up from 44% in the prior year, signaling better cost management. Crucially, the company shipped as many Proteograph instruments in Q1 2025 as it did in all of 2024, suggesting accelerating adoption.

But the skeptics will point to Q2 2024’s revenue drop of 23% year-over-year (to $3.1 million) and Q3 2024’s 3% decline. Can Seer sustain growth amid these fluctuations?

Feasibility of $17M–$18M Guidance: The Math and the Hurdles

To hit the 2025 guidance of $17M–$18M, Seer must grow revenue by 24% from 2024’s $14.2 million. Let’s break down the trajectory:

• Q1 2025: $4.2 million (37% growth vs. Q1 2024).
• Q2 2024: $3.1 million (a 23% decline vs. Q2 2023).
• Q3 2024: $4.0 million (a 3% decline vs. Q3 2023).

Assuming Q2 and Q3 2025 repeat their 2023 performance (pre-pandemic demand), the company would need roughly $5.5 million in Q2 and $4.2 million in Q4 to reach $17 million. This is achievable—if execution holds.

The wildcard is related-party revenue, which dropped sharply in 2024 (from $954k in Q1 2023 to $226k in Q1 2025). If non-core partnerships continue to wane, Seer must offset this with organic instrument sales and service revenue. The STAC program—which provides end-to-end proteomics services—could help, but its scalability is unproven at scale.

Competitive Advantages: Why Proteograph Could Win

1. Technological Edge: The Proteograph’s ability to profile >10,000 proteins in a single run outperforms legacy tools like mass spectrometers, which typically analyze hundreds of proteins. This specificity is a goldmine for pharma companies racing to identify drug targets.
2. Strategic Partnerships: The Thermo Fisher co-marketing deal (announced Q3 2024) is a game-changer. By pairing Proteograph with Thermo’s Orbitrap mass spectrometers, Seer taps into Thermo’s global salesforce and credibility in proteomics labs.
3. Cash Reserves: With $285 million in cash (Q1 2025) and no debt, Seer can weather delays in instrument adoption or macroeconomic headwinds.

The Risks: Overextension in a Volatile Market

• Execution Risk: Scaling instrument sales requires convincing researchers to replace existing workflows. While the 10,000-sample contract is a win, can Seer secure enough large-scale deals to offset quarterly volatility?
• Profitability Lag: Despite narrowing net losses (to $19.9 million in Q1), Seer remains unprofitable. Operating expenses, while down 14% YoY, still totaled $22.8 million in Q1—far exceeding revenue.
• Competition: Companies like Waters Corp. (WAT) and Danaher (DHR) dominate mass spectrometry. Will Proteograph’s niche appeal justify its premium price?

Verdict: Buy the Vision, But Mind the Execution

Seer’s Proteograph is undeniably groundbreaking, and the Q1 surge suggests researchers are taking notice. The Thermo Fisher partnership and $312 million cash runway (as of Q3 2024) give management ample room to scale.

However, the path to profitability remains foggy. Investors must weigh whether the $17M–$18M guidance is achievable against a backdrop of lumpy quarterly results and reliance on non-core revenue.

Bottom Line: Seer’s stock is a high-risk, high-reward bet on proteomics’ next-gen tools. Buy if you believe in the Proteograph’s long-term potential—and can stomach near-term volatility.

Investment thesis: Hold for now. The Proteograph’s promise is clear, but execution over the next two quarters will determine whether this is a breakthrough or a bubble.