Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) Market Overview

• Price declined 0.57% over 24 hours, closing at 1.62e-06 BTC
• Volatility remained low, with Bollinger Bands narrowing
• Volume surged in late NY session, but price failed to break higher
• RSI drifted below 30, hinting at potential oversold conditions
• No strong bullish patterns emerged, but short-term support at 1.61e-06 holds

Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) opened at 1.76e-06 BTC on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.62e-06 BTC on October 14 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 1.76e-06 BTC and a low of 1.6e-06 BTC, with total volume of 346,559.8 and turnover of ~543.45 BTC across the 24-hour period. The price action was largely bearish, with a steady decline punctuated by brief attempts at consolidation.

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages for much of the day, indicating a short-term downward trend. Notably, a bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged around 22:30 ET as the price pushed back to 1.74e-06 BTC, but it failed to hold above that level. A key support level appears to be forming near 1.61e-06 BTC, which was tested twice in the final hours of the 24-hour period. Resistance remains at 1.74e-06 BTC, where the price previously reversed direction.

MACD has been negative for the majority of the session, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the past two hours as bearish momentum slowed. RSI has dipped below 30, suggesting that the price may be entering oversold territory, though a rebound has yet to materialize. Bollinger Bands have remained compressed for most of the period, indicating low volatility and a lack of directional conviction. Price has been hovering near the lower band, which may offer temporary support but is unlikely to prevent further declines unless volume surges again.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high to low show the 61.8% level at 1.64e-06 BTC as a potential short-term ceiling. The price is currently near the 1.61e-06 BTC (38.2%) level, suggesting it may hold as a floor. The formation of a long-legged doji at 1.63e-06 BTC and a potential hammer at 1.62e-06 BTC indicates indecision and could set up a short-term reversal if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be constructed using the RSI(14) indicator, with a signal to buy when RSI falls below 30 and exit when it rises back above that threshold. This strategy is based on the assumption that the price of SCRTBTC is entering oversold territory and may attract buying interest at lower levels. For the purposes of a historical backtest, identifying the correct price series is essential—whether that involves referencing a specific exchange (e.g., Binance) or using an alternative quote currency (e.g., SCRT-USDT). Once the correct price data is obtained, RSI values can be calculated, and the performance of this strategy from 2022-01-01 to the present can be evaluated for potential signal accuracy and risk-adjusted returns. This approach would align with the current technical indicators discussed, particularly the RSI reading and Bollinger Bands, which together signal a potential oversold condition.