Secret/Bitcoin (SCRTBTC) Market Overview for 2025-10-03

• SCRTBTC opens at 1.57e-06, trades between 1.55e-06 and 1.71e-06, closes at 1.55e-06.
• Price consolidates near prior support with bearish momentum.
• High-volume bullish impulse seen in 18:30–19:00 ET range.
• Volatility contracts in final hours; RSI suggests oversold conditions.
• Downtrend continues, with 1.61e-06 and 1.58e-06 as key levels.

The Secret/Bitcoin pair opened at 1.57e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached an intraday high of 1.71e-06 before closing at 1.55e-06 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 653,359.9 units, with a notional turnover of ~$1.02 (based on BTC value). The pair showed a bearish bias with a consolidation pattern near key support.

Structure & Formations

Price found support at 1.55e-06 multiple times, with a failed attempt to break above 1.61e-06 suggesting resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 02:30–03:00 ET window, and a doji formed near 06:45–07:00 ET, indicating indecision and a possible reversal or consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA was at ~1.60e-06 and the 50-period SMA at ~1.62e-06. Price closed below both, indicating bearish pressure. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines all showed bearish alignment, with SCRTBTC trading below all.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed negative divergence during the final hours, with bearish momentum persisting. RSI dropped to 32, suggesting oversold conditions, though a reversal remains uncertain. A bullish RSI bounce could signal a temporary consolidation, but the overall trend appears bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded briefly during the 18:30–19:00 ET window, with price touching the upper band at 1.67e-06. By 10:00–11:00 ET, volatility had contracted, and price closed near the lower band at 1.55e-06, indicating a possible oversold condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:30–19:00 ET and 06:45–07:00 ET windows, coinciding with key price swings. The highest turnover occurred during the 18:30–19:00 ET bullish thrust, with 80,966.6 units traded. However, the lack of follow-through volume suggests that these moves may lack sustainability.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 1.55e-06 to 1.71e-06 swing, key retracement levels are at 38.2% (~1.63e-06) and 61.8% (~1.60e-06). Price has bounced from both levels multiple times but failed to break through, reinforcing their significance. A break below 1.55e-06 could extend the downtrend toward 1.52e-06.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on a combination of RSI divergence and Fibonacci retracement levels to time entries. Specifically, longs are initiated when RSI diverges above 30 and price bounces off a 38.2% retracement level. Shorts are triggered when RSI diverges below 70 and price fails to break a 61.8% retracement. Given today’s pattern, a short entry at 1.60e-06 with a stop above 1.62e-06 appears well aligned with the current bearish setup, provided volume and momentum confirm the breakdown.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see SCRTBTC testing 1.55e-06 as a critical support level. A break below could target 1.52e-06, while a rejection here may lead to a consolidation between 1.55e-06 and 1.60e-06. Investors should remain cautious about volatility and volume patterns, as false breakouts remain a risk.