Seagate Slumps 3.45% on $1.74B Volume (Rank 42) as Weak Guidance Overshadows Strong Q4 Performance, HAMR Tech Eyes Long-Term Growth

Seagate Technology (STX) fell 3.45% on July 30, 2025, with a trading volume of $1.74 billion, ranking 42nd in market activity. The decline followed the company’s cautious Q1 2026 revenue and earnings guidance, which fell below analyst expectations despite strong Q4 2025 performance. Seagate reported Q4 non-GAAP earnings of $2.59 per share and revenue of $2.44 billion, driven by robust cloud demand and record gross margins of 36.2%. However, its Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $2.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.30 signaled potential sequential declines, prompting profit-taking by investors after a 70% year-to-date gain.

The stock’s pullback reflects investor caution around macroeconomic headwinds and oversupply in the PC market, which are dampening near-term demand for hard drives. Seagate’s management highlighted structural improvements and AI-related growth opportunities, particularly in its Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology. HAMR, which enables 36TB drives, is expected to ramp up production by mid-2025, supporting long-term revenue growth in cloud and AI-driven storage. Despite the near-term guidance concerns, the company’s focus on high-margin nearline cloud sales and margin discipline remains a key strength.

Seagate’s Q4 results underscored its position as a leader in high-capacity storage, with mass capacity revenues surging 40% year-over-year to $2 billion. The company shipped 162.5 exabytes of HDD storage in the quarter, a 42% annual increase. While legacy market demand remains subdued, nearline cloud and edge computing applications continue to drive growth. Analysts note that HAMR’s adoption by cloud and enterprise customers could offset short-term challenges, positioning Seagate to benefit from expanding data storage needs in AI and edge environments.

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