Seagate Rises 2.57% on $370M Volume but Ranks 293rd in Activity Amid Mixed Guidance

On August 12, 2025, Seagate Technology (STX) rose 2.57% with a trading volume of $0.37 billion, ranking 293rd in daily market activity. The stock’s performance followed mixed quarterly guidance despite strong operational metrics.

Seagate reported Q2 2025 revenue of $2.44 billion, surpassing analyst estimates by 0.6% and marking a 29.5% year-on-year increase. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $2.59, exceeding expectations by 6%. The company attributed the growth to sustained cloud demand, particularly for nearline and HAMR-based hard drives, which drove higher exabyte shipments and gross margin expansion to 23.2%.

However, Q3 revenue guidance of $2.5 billion fell 2.5% below consensus forecasts, reflecting supply constraints and production allocation toward customer qualifications for new HAMR technology. Management emphasized discipline in aligning supply with demand, noting that operational efficiency and favorable product mix—driven by 24TB and 28TB drives—supported profitability. CFO Gianluca Romano highlighted that guidance prioritizes supply capacity over market demand, with gross margin improvements expected from HAMR adoption and cost controls.

Analyst questions during the earnings call underscored key risks, including global tax rule impacts and share count dilution from convertible notes. CEO Dave Mosley reiterated confidence in long-term margin expansion but cautioned near-term production limitations. The company plans to resume share buybacks to offset dilution and maintain free cash flow momentum.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding them for one day resulted in a moderate return. The total profit from this strategy, considering the given time period from 2022 to the present, is $2,300. The maximum drawdown during this period was -15.7%, which occurred in early 2023. This indicates that while the strategy has the potential to generate some profits, it is not without its risks, as evidenced by the significant drawdown in February 2023.