SCWO Plummets 23.9% Amid Regulatory Shifts and Strategic Moves: What's Next for 374Water?

Summary
• 374Water (SCWO) plunges 23.9% to $1.7982, erasing 73.6% of its YTD value
• Company announces Charles Weiser’s board appointment and Cedar Rapids PFAS project
• EPA’s deregulatory agenda sparks sector-wide uncertainty

374Water’s SCWO stock has swung wildly on December 29, 2025, trading from a high of $2.2789 to a low of $1.79 amid a 315,863-share surge. The sharp decline follows a mix of corporate governance updates, regulatory shifts, and sector-specific challenges. With the EPA’s deregulatory agenda and the company’s strategic moves in focus, investors are recalibrating risk profiles in a volatile market environment.

Regulatory Rollbacks and Strategic Appointments Spark SCWO Volatility
The 23.9% intraday drop in SCWO reflects a confluence of factors. First, the EPA’s announced deregulatory agenda, including reconsideration of power plant emissions and PFAS regulations, has cast doubt on the long-term demand for 374Water’s AirSCWO technology. Second, the appointment of Charles Weiser to the board, while signaling governance strength, coincided with broader market skepticism about the company’s ability to scale its Waste Destruction Services business. Lastly, the Cedar Rapids PFAS project, though a strategic win, remains a pilot with uncertain commercialization timelines, failing to offset near-term profit concerns.

Pollution & Treatment Controls Sector Mixed as ERII Trails
The Pollution & Treatment Controls sector remains fragmented, with Energy Recovery (ERII) down 0.29% despite SCWO’s sharp decline. While 374Water’s focus on PFAS destruction aligns with regulatory priorities, the sector’s broader exposure to EPA deregulation has dampened investor enthusiasm. ERII’s resilience highlights its diversified industrial applications, contrasting with SCWO’s niche but capital-intensive approach. However, SCWO’s -23.9% move underscores its higher sensitivity to policy shifts compared to sector peers.

Technical Divergence and Options Strategy in a Volatile SCWO Landscape
• RSI: 94.98 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.147 (bullish) vs. Signal Line: 0.0095 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 1.7982 (below upper band 1.3042)
• 200-day MA: 0.3308 (far below current price)

SCWO’s technicals reveal a short-term overbought condition (RSI 94.98) and a bullish MACD histogram, but the stock remains trapped below its 200-day MA and Bollinger Bands, signaling structural weakness. Key support levels at 1.79 (intraday low) and 1.625 (52W low) are critical for near-term stability. Given the sector’s regulatory uncertainty and SCWO’s lack of options liquidity, leveraged ETFs are not viable. Aggressive short-term traders may target a breakdown below $1.79, while long-term investors should await clarity on the Cedar Rapids project’s commercialization potential.

Backtest 374Water Stock Performance
The iShares Core S&P U.S. Broad Tech ETF (SCWO) has demonstrated resilience following a -24% intraday plunge from 2022 to the present. The backtest reveals a 3-day win rate of 46.08%, a 10-day win rate of 45.61%, and a 30-day win rate of 51.31%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The average 3-day return is 0.35%, the 10-day return is 1.36%, and the 30-day return is 4.37%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.42%, which occurred on day 36 after the plunge.

SCWO at Crossroads: Strategic Moves and Regulatory Winds Shape Immediate Outlook
374Water’s SCWO faces a pivotal juncture as regulatory shifts and strategic initiatives collide. The EPA’s deregulatory agenda poses existential risks to its core markets, while the Cedar Rapids project offers a glimmer of hope for commercial validation. Investors must weigh the company’s governance upgrades against its operational challenges. With Energy Recovery (ERII) down 0.29%, sector-wide caution persists. Immediate action: Monitor the 1.79 support level and the EPA’s PFAS rulemaking timeline. A breakdown below 1.79 could trigger a retest of the 52W low at 1.625, while a rebound above 2.2789 would signal short-term relief.