Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis and Backtest Implications

• Price tested resistance near 2.52e-06 but reversed lower, with bearish divergence in volume and RSI.
• Volatility expanded during overnight hours, with Bollinger Bands showing a recent contraction.
• Turnover surged to $20,000+ during key price swings, but failed to confirm bullish breaks.
• Key support levels at 2.45e-06 and 2.43e-06 appear reinforced by consolidation and volume spikes.
• 15-minute MACD remains in bear territory, suggesting momentum is tilting to the downside.

The Scroll/Bitcoin (SCRBTC) pair opened at 2.42e-06 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 2.52e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 02:45 ET. The 24-hour low of 2.43e-06 was recorded on the same date at 11:30 ET. The price closed at 2.43e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 57,239.7 and notional turnover reached approximately $140 (based on average BTC price).

The candlestick structure revealed a series of bullish and bearish reversals during the overnight session, with a failed breakout attempt at 2.52e-06 followed by a sharp pullback. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 02:45 ET, while key support at 2.45e-06 and 2.43e-06 showed resilience. A doji at 04:00 ET signaled indecision, and a second doji at 08:00 ET marked a short-term pause in the downward move.

MACD remained below the zero line for most of the session, with a narrowing histogram indicating fading bearish momentum. RSI reached 28 at 05:30 ET and 33 at 08:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions. However, the price failed to respond to these levels, raising the possibility of a continuation lower. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the overnight hours, with price testing the upper band before retracing toward the middle band. Volatility appears to be stabilizing, but the lower band remains a key watch level at ~2.43e-06.

Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key price action, especially the 61.8% level (~2.46e-06) acting as a minor resistance. A 38.2% retrace (~2.45e-06) became a critical pivot point, with price testing it three times before breaking through. On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages are both below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The backtest strategy leverages a momentum-based signal triggered by a bullish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI crossing above 30 and price testing the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The signal is closed when price breaks the lower Bollinger Band or the 50-period moving average.