Scroll/Bitcoin Market Overview

• SCRBTC edged down 0.33% in 24 hours amid choppy price action and moderate volume spikes.
• Price remained within a tight 0.46% range on Bollinger Bands, suggesting low volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in late ET hours, hinting at short-term support.
• Turnover surged 12.4% in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, but failed to confirm a directional breakout.
• MACD remained flat, with RSI hovering near 50, indicating neutral momentum and no overbought/oversold signals.

Structure & Formations

Over the last 24 hours, SCRBTC oscillated within a narrow price corridor between 1.60e-06 and 1.74e-06 BTC per Scroll token. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 2045 ET candle, where price rebounded after a brief dip to 1.70e-06. This suggests short-term support near 1.70e-06 may be holding, while resistance remains defined by the 1.73e-06 ceiling, which has been tested but not decisively broken. A small doji at the 0130 ET candle also indicates indecision among buyers and sellers following an earlier rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are nearly overlapping, indicating a lack of clear trend. The 50-period MA, at 1.68e-06, acts as a key pivot point for near-term direction. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines are also tightly clustered, reinforcing the sideways consolidation phase. Price has not closed above the 50-day MA for several cycles, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained flat over the past 24 hours, reflecting low momentum and no directional bias. The histogram shows no divergence from the signal line, signaling a continuation of range-bound conditions. RSI remains within the neutral 45–55 range, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. The lack of RSI divergence suggests that the current range-bound environment is likely to persist unless volume picks up significantly.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained tightly clustered within the Bollinger Bands for most of the 24-hour period, with volatility at its lowest since early October. The upper band hovered near 1.74e-06, and the lower band near 1.60e-06. Price has tested the lower band twice without breaking through, reinforcing its role as a psychological floor. The narrow band width suggests a potential breakout may be on the horizon, though no clear catalyst has emerged thus far.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, reaching 11,730 contracts in the 18:45 ET candle. This surge in volume occurred alongside a 0.18% price increase but failed to push SCRBTC above 1.74e-06. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 1.97e-03 BTC in the same timeframe. However, the lack of follow-through volume in the next candle suggests the move lacked conviction. Divergence between price and volume is a bearish sign if not resolved in the next 24 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.60e-06 to 1.74e-06, key levels at 1.66e-06 (38.2%), 1.69e-06 (50%), and 1.71e-06 (61.8%) have been tested multiple times. Price has bounced off the 61.8% level (1.71e-06) twice, suggesting it is a critical resistance. On the daily chart, a similar 61.8% retracement level is near 1.73e-06, which may act as a short-term ceiling if the current consolidation breaks.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of clear RSI data for SCRBTC, it is crucial to confirm the correct symbol and data source to conduct the proposed backtest. The “sell-when-RSI > 70” strategy could be effective if applied to a ticker with more liquid and continuous price data. Once the correct symbol—such as SCR-BTC on Binance or SCR/USDT on another exchange—is identified and the corresponding RSI values are retrieved, the backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to the present. This will allow an evaluation of the strategy’s profitability and risk-adjusted returns in volatile crypto conditions, particularly in assets like Scroll that are still forming clear trend structures.