Scholastic Soared 22.37%, What’s the Next Catalyst for This Publishing Powerhouse?

Summary
• Scholastic’s stock surged 22.37% intraday, breaking above its 52-week high of $34.18.
• The company reported Q4 revenue of $508.3M, a 7% increase, driven by Hunger Games sales and cost controls.
• Adjusted EBITDA hit $91.2M, exceeding expectations despite Education Solutions segment declines.
• Options volume spiked, with 368 contracts traded on the SCHL20250815P25 put and 28 on the SCHL20250815C25 call.

Scholastic’s dramatic 22.37% rally reflects a rare alignment of earnings strength and strategic optimism. The stock’s intraday range—from $23.80 to $27.02—underscores market frenzy around its restructuring efforts and entertainment expansion. With a dynamic PE ratio of -30.5, investors are betting on a turnaround story fueled by 9 Story Media Group and potential real estate sales.

Earnings Outperformance and Strategic Rebranding Ignite Momentum
Scholastic’s 22.37% surge stems from a confluence of outperforming Q4 results and forward-looking guidance. The company’s Children’s Book Publishing and Distribution segment drove 7% revenue growth, amplified by the Hunger Games phenomenon. Despite a 12% slump in the Education Solutions division, cost controls pushed adjusted EBITDA to $145.4M—a 6% increase. CEO Peter Warwick’s restructuring, including the Scholastic Children’s Book Group and 9 Story Media acquisition, signals a pivot toward IP-driven growth. Additionally, the potential $10M+ cash infusion from real estate sales (including its NYC HQ) added speculative upside, validating Wall Street’s $35 median 12-month price target.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Volatility-Ready Puts
• MACD: 0.539 (bullish crossover), Signal Line: 0.615 (bearish divergence), Histogram: -0.076 (divergence warning)
• RSI: 49.25 (neutral, approaching oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $22.31 (price above), Middle $21.54, Lower $20.78
• 200D MA: $21.19 (price above key support)

Scholastic’s short-term bullish trend aligns with its 52W high retest. Key levels to watch: $26.37 (current), $27.02 (intraday high), and $21.54 (200D MA). The 52W low of $15.77 remains a distant floor. With implied volatility averaging 43.75–52.23%, near-term options offer asymmetric risk/reward.

Top Options Picks:

1. SCHL20250815C25 (Call)

• Strike: $25, Expiry: 2025-08-15, Delta: 0.674 (high sensitivity), IV: 52.23%, Leverage: 12.82%, Theta: -0.028 (rapid decay), Gamma: 0.106 (high sensitivity to price swings), Turnover: $5,569

• Why: High delta ensures price participation in a $27.02+ move. IV suggests volatility premium. Projected 5% upside (to $27.70) yields a 412.5% payoff: max(0, 27.70 - 25) = $2.70 per share.

2. SCHL20250919C30 (Call)

• Strike: $30, Expiry: 2025-09-19, Delta: 0.245 (moderate sensitivity), IV: 43.12%, Leverage: 43.80%, Theta: -0.0126 (slow decay), Gamma: 0.070 (moderate sensitivity), Turnover: $8,636

• Why: Balances leverage with time decay. Gamma of 0.070 ensures responsiveness to post-earnings rallies. A 5% upside (to $27.70) results in $0 payoff, but a 10% move (to $29.01) triggers max(0, 29.01 - 30) = $0.01, offering a speculative floor.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider SCHL20250815C25 into a bounce above $27.02. If $25 support breaks, the SCHL20250815P25 put (IV: 43.75%) offers short-side potential.

Backtest Scholastic Stock Performance
The backtest of the Schwab U.S. Large-Cap ETF (SCHL) after a 22% intraday surge shows mixed results, with the 3-day win rate at 55.24%, the 10-day win rate at 52.80%, and the 30-day win rate at 52.97%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.07%, which occurred on day 56, indicating that while there is a higher probability of positive returns in the short term, the overall performance is modest.

Position for the Long Game: Scholastic’s 52W High Within Reach
Scholastic’s 22.37% rally is a high-octane bet on its IP-centric strategy and real estate liquidity. While the 52W high of $34.18 remains a distant target, the $27.02 intraday high offers a near-term inflection point. Technicals suggest a bullish breakout scenario, with RSI and MACD hinting at momentum preservation. Watch the sector leader News(NWSA) at +0.61% as a barometer for broader publishing sentiment. Act now: Buy the SCHL20250815C25 call if $26.37 holds; exit if $21.54 support breaks. The next catalyst? The September 30 release of Gordon Ramsay’s Idiot Sandwich—could it spark a cross-sector content play?