El rally de Papá Noel: una guía estratégica para aprovechar las tendencias de la temporada para obtener ganancias en el cierre del año

The Santa Claus Rally, a well-documented seasonal phenomenon in the stock market, has historically delivered strong returns for investors who position themselves ahead of year-end. This pattern, spanning the final five trading days of December and the first two of January, has seen the S&P 500 average gains of approximately 1.3% since 1950, with the index rising in roughly 80% of years according to data. As 2026 approaches, the interplay of historical trends and current market dynamics offers a compelling case for strategic participation. Below, we dissect the mechanics of the rally, its drivers, and actionable strategies to capitalize on this seasonal opportunity.

Historical Performance and Key Drivers

The Santa Claus Rally is rooted in a combination of behavioral and structural factors. Year-end portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors, reduced trading volumes during the holiday season, and a surge in retail optimism all contribute to the upward bias. Data from Citadel Securities further underscores this trend, showing the S&P 500 has gained 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December since 1928, with an average return of 1.3%.

However, the rally is not immune to macroeconomic headwinds. Recent years have seen deviations: the S&P 500 declined by -1.03% in 2023-2024 and -1.56% in 2024-2025 according to financial reports. For 2026, analysts project a cautiously optimistic outlook, with expectations of a 12% rise in the S&P 500 by year-end, driven by improving corporate earnings and a potential easing of inflationary pressures.

Actionable Strategies: ETFs and Undervalued Stocks

To harness the Santa Claus Rally, investors can employ a mix of broad-market exposure and targeted stock picks.

1. ETF-Based Bets: Defined Risk with Bull Put Spreads

For those seeking limited-risk exposure, bull put spreads on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) offer a structured approach. This strategy involves selling a put option at a higher strike price and buying a put at a lower strike, capping potential losses while profiting from moderate upward moves. Given the S&P 500's historical tendency to rise during this period, bull put spreads can provide a cost-effective way to participate in the rally.

2. Undervalued S&P 500 Stocks: High-Conviction Opportunities

While the 2026 Santa Claus Rally article from InvestingPro highlights nine undervalued S&P 500 stocks according to market analysis, the specific names remain subscription-locked. However, the methodology is clear: these stocks are selected based on 27.6% to 67.9% undervaluation relative to fair value estimates and 26.3% to 59.6% projected upside from analyst price targets according to the report. Investors should prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, improving earnings forecasts, and low valuation multiples.

A separate analysis from Barron's identifies three actionable picks:
- OppFi (OPFI): Trading at a P/E of 6.29X (vs. industry average of 20.73X), this fintech firm benefits from a low valuation and rising demand for digital lending solutions according to market research.
- Green Dot (GDOT): A prepaid card and financial services leader with a robust balance sheet and earnings estimates revised upward by 15% year-to-date.
- Evertec (EVTC): A Latin American fintech play with expanding market share and a P/E ratio below 10X, reflecting undervaluation relative to peers.

These stocks exemplify the type of high-conviction opportunities that align with the Santa Claus Rally's risk-on sentiment.

Risks and Considerations

While historical trends are compelling, investors must remain mindful of macroeconomic risks. A sharp rise in interest rates or geopolitical shocks could disrupt the rally. Diversification across ETFs and individual stocks, coupled with strict stop-loss discipline, is essential to mitigate downside risk.

Conclusion

The Santa Claus Rally remains a powerful seasonal trend, supported by decades of data and behavioral economics. For 2026, a combination of broad-market ETF strategies and carefully selected undervalued stocks offers a balanced approach to capturing year-end gains. As always, due diligence and risk management are paramount in navigating this dynamic period.