Samsara Stock Rises 3.11% Amid Technical Recovery Signals Near Key $40 Resistance

Samsara (IOT) closed at $39.45 in its most recent session, gaining 3.11%. This occurred after testing the daily low of $38.13 and reaching a high of $39.79, suggesting resilience near recent support levels. The price action over the past year reveals significant volatility, ranging from highs near $61.90 in early 2025 to lows around $31.40 in April 2025.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns show a potential recovery attempt following a sharp downturn in early September. The large bullish candle on September 5th (+17.44% with notably high volume) formed a base near $38.39. Subsequent price action formed consolidation patterns, with the latest green candle closing near the high, indicating buyers gained control. Key resistance now appears near $40.00 - $41.50, aligning with the September 8th swing high and the congestion zone from late August. Support is evident near $38.10-$38.30 (recent lows and September 9th reaction low).
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages reveal a downtrend in the intermediate to long-term. The shorter 50-day MA consistently resides below the longer-term 100-day and 200-day MAs, confirming bearish sequence. Recent price action sits below all three major averages ($41.50 for 50D, ~$44.30 for 100D, ~$47.00 for 200D), reinforcing the overall downtrend. However, the convergence of shorter-term price action near the 50-day MA (price is ~$39.45 vs 50D ~$41.50) suggests this level may act as immediate overhead resistance. A sustained break above $41.50 would be needed to signal a potential short-term trend change.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (based on 12/26/9 periods) shows the signal line converging with the MACD line below the zero axis. This suggests bearish momentum is decelerating but remains negative. The KDJ oscillator (typically 9-day) potentially signals an oversold bounce is occurring. Following the deep oversold condition after the early September plunge, both the %K and %D lines may be curving upwards from sub-20 levels, suggesting improving short-term momentum. However, neither indicator has yet crossed into territory suggesting a confirmed bullish reversal. Confluence exists in the tentative weakening of downward momentum.
Bollinger Bands
The Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2 std dev) contracted significantly following the volatility spike on September 5th. This contraction persisted through mid-September consolidation. The price has recently moved from near the lower band towards the middle band ($~39.40-$40.00 currently). This breakout from the lower half of the bands suggests reduced downward pressure. Confirmation would require price to hold above the middle band and/or see band expansion accompanying upward movement.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume analysis provides critical context. The massive volume surge on September 5th (+17.44%) confirmed the capitulation low near $38.39. The subsequent drop on September 9th (-7.06%) also occurred on very high volume, highlighting strong selling pressure at the time. Recent sessions show lower volume during consolidation and recovery attempts. While the most recent gain occurred on moderate volume (5.57M shares), it was lower than the preceding down day. Sustainability requires future up moves to see increasing volume for confirmation. Overall, volume signals validate the September lows as significant but necessitate stronger volume conviction for a sustained up move.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating RSI (14-day): Prior to the September 5th plunge, RSI had likely dropped well below 30 (deeply oversold). The sharp rally on high volume likely triggered a rapid rebound towards but below 50 (e.g., into the 45-48 zone). Subsequent weakness may have suppressed RSI again. Current price action near $39.45 potentially places RSI in the low-to-mid 40s – recovering from oversold but still below the neutral 50 level. This indicates bearish momentum persists overall, though the immediate oversold risk has lessened. RSI remains non-overbought, offering room for further upside movement if buyer conviction strengthens.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the significant decline from the peak of $42.09 (Sept 5) down to the swing low of $33.60 (Aug 26):
23.6% retracement: $35.64
38.2% retracement: $37.16 (Key level: Recent price action found resistance/sellers near here late August & early Sept)
50.0% retracement: $37.85
61.8% retracement: $38.53 (Critical resistance: Previous highs and current recovery target)
78.6% retracement: $39.52 (Near the current session high/close)
The recent recovery has surpassed the 50% level ($37.85) and is testing the critical 78.6% ($39.52) level. Confluence exists here as the $39.45-$39.79 zone represents both this key Fibonacci resistance and the recent high/close. A decisive break above $39.50-$40.00 would target a full retracement towards the $42.09 level. Conversely, failure here could see a retest of $37.85 support.
Synthesis and Confluence
Confluence points suggest a potentially constructive technical setup in the short term, though within a broader downtrend:
1. Near-Term Bullish Signals: Recovery attempt holding above key support ($38.10-$38.30), break out of lower Bollinger Band range, oversold recovery signals in KDJ, price near important Fibonacci resistance ($39.50 - 78.6%).
2. Significant Resistances Overhead: The $39.50-$40.00 zone (Fibonacci, psychological, recent highs, Middle Bollinger Band) is critical immediate resistance. Above this, the 50-day MA (~$41.50) and the 61.8% Fib of the major downswing since early 2024 ($38.53) pose substantial hurdles. Volume needs expansion to overcome these.
3. Broader Bearish Context: The stock trades below all key moving averages (50D, 100D, 200D) with the long-term MA slope declining. MACD remains below zero, and RSI is below 50.
4. Key Risk: Failure to hold above $38.00 and break above $40.00 decisively would suggest the recent rally is merely a consolidation within the downtrend, potentially targeting the September lows ($38.10-$38.40) again or even deeper support near $36.50-$37.00.
5. Potential Bullish Catalyst: A high-volume breakout above $40.25 (surmounting key Fib and price structure resistance) could trigger a move towards $41.50 (50-DMA) and challenge the intermediate bearish structure, potentially shifting the short-term trend.
In conclusion, while Samsara exhibits tentative signs of stabilizing near $38 support and pushing towards $40 resistance, technical indicators lack full bullish conviction. Trading near the critical $39.50 resistance confluence zone necessitates close monitoring. Confirmation requires a decisive, volume-backed close above $40.00. Until broader trend indicators improve and resistance levels are breached, the primary downtrend remains intact, and caution is warranted.