Samsara Stock Plunges 7.83% In Three Days As Bearish Signals Intensify

Samsara (IOT) closed at $36.94 on September 24th, 2025, marking a third consecutive day of losses and a 7.83% decline over this period, reflecting significant recent downward pressure.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a distinct bearish sequence. The closing prices ($39.31, $38.41, $36.94) demonstrate a clear three black crows pattern formed over the last three sessions (Sept 22nd-24th), a strong bearish reversal signal suggesting persistent selling pressure. Key resistance now lies firmly around $39.00-$40.00, an area where several recent rallies have faltered and formed lower highs, notably on Sept 19th, 23rd, and 22nd. Conversely, significant support appears near $35.50-$36.00, the level from which the sharp rally initiating on Sept 4th began. A breach below this support area could signal further downside acceleration.
Moving Average Theory
The moving averages configuration paints a distinctly bearish intermediate and long-term picture. Current price ($36.94) sits well below the calculated 50-day SMA (approx. $39.20), the 100-day SMA (approx. $41.50), and significantly below the 200-day SMA (approx. $44.30). All key moving averages (50, 100, 200-day) are visibly sloping downward. The sequence itself – price below the 50-day, the 50-day below the 100-day, and the 100-day below the 200-day – confirms a strong bearish downtrend across all major timeframes, reinforcing the downtrend resistance overhead.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Based on the closing price trajectory and volume patterns, the MACD (assuming standard 12,26,9 settings) likely remains significantly below its signal line and deep within negative territory. This suggests that bearish momentum is persistent and potentially accelerating. Concurrently, the KDJ indicator appears to be recovering from deeply oversold territory (likely below 20 on both K and D lines recently) but remains below the 50 mid-line. This nascent recovery suggests a potential short-term oversold bounce could emerge, but its weakness relative to the strong MACD bearishness warrants caution. A failure for KDJ to sustain its move above 50 would signal the rebound lacks conviction.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands analysis, using typical 20-period settings and 2 standard deviations, indicates a recent expansion in volatility coinciding with the sharp decline from around $39.00. The price is currently pressing against or potentially breaching the lower band ($36.94 vs estimated lower band ~$36.80-$37.00). While a touch or breach of the lower band can signal an oversold condition, its occurrence within a strong downtrend carries a higher risk of continuation. A subsequent contraction of the bands, especially on weak volume, could set the stage for the next price move.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent three-day decline saw consistently elevated volume (4.4M, 4.4M, 3.7M shares), particularly higher than the preceding low-volume sessions near resistance. This above-average volume accompanying the breakdown reinforces the bearish conviction behind the move. Key confirmation for any attempted recovery would be significantly increased volume on subsequent up days. Historical patterns, like the massive volume surge on Sept 5th (+17.44%) and Sept 9th (-7.06%), highlight periods of high volatility, while lower volumes often preceded failed rallies near $39-$40 resistance.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Calculating the RSI based on the most recent 14 closes reveals a value firmly in oversold territory, likely oscillating around the low 30s. This indicates the recent selling has been forceful and may be overextended in the immediate term, increasing the probability of a technical rebound or consolidation. However, the strong downtrend means this oversold condition is a warning sign, not a guarantee of a sustained reversal. RSI divergences observed earlier in September (price making lower highs while RSI made higher highs) foreshadowed the latest leg down, emphasizing its utility in spotting potential exhaustion within trends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the dominant impulse wave from the June high (~$61.90 on Feb 19th) to the August low ($33.44 on Aug 26th) provides critical levels. The retracement levels are significant: 23.6% ($38.49), 38.2% ($42.60), 50% ($45.67), 61.8% ($48.73). The recent rally peaked near the 38.2% level (~$42.09 on Sept 5th) and encountered strong rejection. This level now serves as major overhead resistance. Support currently rests near the 23.6% level ($38.49), which aligns with the $39-$40 psychological/candlestick resistance zone. The price currently trades well below the 23.6% level, confirming its weakness. Key levels to watch for potential rebounds include the recent swing low near $36.00 and the August low near $33.44.
Confluence Points
A strong confluence of bearish signals exists: the 3-black crows pattern coinciding with price resistance near $39-$40, reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci level; price positioned significantly below all major declining moving averages; MACD indicating robust bearish momentum; oversold RSI readings occurring within a powerful downtrend; and high volume confirming the breakdown. The rejection at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($42.60) in early September proved decisive, turning that level into formidable overhead resistance.
Significant Divergences
The main divergence currently evident is the deeply oversold RSI (low 30s) against the ongoing strong price decline and bearish MACD. While potentially foreshadowing a short-term pause or bounce, the weight of evidence (downtrend, resistance, volume profile) suggests this divergence currently signals a bearish exhaustion warning rather than a reliable bullish reversal signal. An earlier bearish divergence was noted in the RSI around mid-September when price formed lower highs near $39-$40 while the RSI formed higher highs, warning of waning upside momentum before the recent plunge.