Salesforce cae 3,1% a causa de la incertidumbre acerca de la estrategia de precios en inteligencia artificial. ¿Es esta una oportunidad de compra?

Summary
• Salesforce (CRM) opens at $261.06, plunges to $253.08 intraday, closing at $254.07
• CEO Marc Benioff’s AI monetization strategy sparks investor caution despite Q3 earnings beat
• Options chain shows aggressive short-term positioning with 20 contracts trading above $255 strike prices

Today’s sharp selloff in Salesforce, a 3.1% drop from its 52-week high of $367.09, has ignited a firestorm of speculation. The stock’s intraday range—from $262.28 to $253.08—reflects a volatile reaction to Benioff’s AI licensing model and sector-wide tech jitters. With the 200-day moving average at $258.37 acting as a critical psychological barrier, the question looms: is this a panic-driven dip or a strategic entry point?

AI Pricing Strategy Sparks Investor Caution
The selloff stems from CEO Marc Benioff’s admission that Salesforce is willing to absorb short-term losses on its AI agent platform to lock in customers. The Agentic Enterprise License Agreement (AELA) model, which prioritizes seat-based pricing over consumption-based metrics, has raised red flags among investors. While Q3 earnings beat estimates ($3.25 vs. $2.86), the forward-looking monetization strategy—where customers could exceed profitable usage thresholds—has triggered fears of margin compression. This contrasts with Forrester’s warning about AI vendor lock-in risks, amplifying skepticism about long-term profitability.

Application Software Sector Suffers as Oracle Drags Down
The Application Software sector, led by Oracle (ORCL), mirrored Salesforce’s decline, with ORCL down 2.83%. This synchronized drop underscores broader concerns about AI-driven pricing models and their impact on SaaS margins. While Salesforce’s AI strategy is unique, the sector’s collective retreat highlights investor wariness toward unproven monetization frameworks in a high-interest-rate environment.

Leveraged ETFs and Options Playbook: Navigating the Volatility
• 200-day MA: $258.37 (below current price)
• RSI: 82.72 (overbought)
• MACD: 5.23 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $270.62 (upper), $213.16 (lower)

Key Levels: The 200-day MA at $258.37 and the 30-day support range ($260.32–$261.09) are critical. A break below $254.36 (200D support) could trigger a test of the 52-week low at $221.96. The Leverage Shares 2X Long CRM Daily ETF (CRMG) offers 2x exposure but is down 6.3% today, reflecting the selloff’s intensity.

Top Options:
• CRM20251219C255
- Strike: $255, Exp: 12/19, IV: 27.34%, Leverage: 88.23%, Delta: 0.4689, Theta: -1.145, Gamma: 0.0489, Turnover: 232,263
- IV (Implied Volatility): Indicates moderate risk/reward balance
- Leverage Ratio: Amplifies gains if CRM rebounds
- Delta: Sensitive to price swings but not overexposed
- Theta: High time decay favors short-term traders
- Gamma: High sensitivity to price movement
- Turnover: High liquidity ensures easy entry/exit
- Payoff (5% downside): $241.36 → $0 (strike not breached)
- Why it stands out: Balances leverage with moderate risk, ideal for a bounce trade.

• CRM20251219C257.5
- Strike: $257.5, Exp: 12/19, IV: 27.72%, Leverage: 131.66%, Delta: 0.3529, Theta: -0.9269, Gamma: 0.0451, Turnover: 74,577
- IV: Slightly higher than 255 strike, reflecting bearish sentiment
- Leverage Ratio: Aggressive 131x potential for a rebound
- Delta: Lower delta reduces immediate risk
- Theta: High time decay suits short-term positioning
- Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price swings
- Turnover: Sufficient liquidity for active trading
- Payoff (5% downside): $241.36 → $0 (strike not breached)
- Why it stands out: High leverage for a potential rebound, with lower delta reducing near-term risk.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider CRM20251219C255 into a bounce above $258.37 (200D MA).

Backtest Salesforce Stock Performance
The backtest of Salesforce (CRM) after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-Day win rate is 53.15%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.94%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.30%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term following the event. The maximum return during the backtest period was 2.64%, suggesting that while the stock may experience volatility, it has the potential for recovery and even exceed its pre-plunge levels.

Act Now: The 254.36 Support Test Could Be Your Entry Signal
The selloff in Salesforce reflects a mix of strategic uncertainty and sector-wide caution, but technicals suggest a potential rebound. The 200-day MA at $258.37 and the 30-day support range ($260.32–$261.09) are critical. If the stock breaks below $254.36, it could test the 52-week low at $221.96. Watch Oracle (ORCL) as a sector barometer—its 2.83% drop today signals broader tech jitters. For a tactical play, consider the Leverage Shares 2X Long CRM Daily ETF (CRMG) if the stock stabilizes above $254.36. Action: Monitor the 254.36 support level and consider the CRM20251219C255 call if a rebound forms.