Is Salesforce (CRM) Poised to Rebound in Q3 2026 Despite Weak Guidance?

Salesforce’s Q2 2026 earnings report, released on September 3, 2025, painted a mixed picture for investors. While the company delivered $10.2 billion in revenue—a 10% year-over-year increase and a 9% rise in constant currency—the stock fell 4% in extended trading due to weaker-than-expected Q3 guidance [1]. This volatility raises a critical question: Is Salesforce (CRM) poised to rebound in Q3 2026, or will its AI-driven growth strategy face headwinds that undermine long-term sustainability?

AI Momentum: A Double-Edged Sword

Salesforce’s AI initiatives, particularly Agentforce and Data Cloud, have become central to its growth narrative. Agentforce, the company’s AI agent platform, has driven $1.2 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR), a 120% year-over-year surge [1]. This platform has achieved an 84% task resolution rate in customer service workflows, reducing manual effort and operational costs [2]. Meanwhile, Data Cloud’s ARR also exceeded $1.2 billion, serving as a foundational layer for AI-driven analytics [1].

However, monetizing AI remains a challenge. Despite these gains, AI-related revenue still accounts for less than 3% of Salesforce’s total revenue [3]. Analysts like RBC’s Rishi Jaluria caution that Agentforce’s current contribution is “modest,” with meaningful scaling expected only by 2027 [3]. This delay raises questions about whether Salesforce can maintain investor confidence amid broader market expectations for aggressive AI monetization.

Competitive Positioning: Leading but Vulnerable

Salesforce’s 23.9% global CRM market share positions it as a clear leader, outpacing Microsoft (7.8%) and Oracle (2.63%) [1]. Its strategic acquisitions—most notably the $8 billion purchase of Informatica—have strengthened its data governance capabilities, enabling hyper-personalized AI insights [3]. Additionally, Agentforce’s 4,000 paid enterprise deployments underscore its early traction [1].

Yet rivals like Microsoft and Oracle are closing the gap. Microsoft’s Azure grew 33% year-over-year in Q3 2025, fueled by its partnership with SAP and integration of AI tools like Databricks [4]. Oracle, meanwhile, is leveraging its cost-advantaged Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) to target enterprise AI workloads, with Larry Ellison projecting $130 billion in AI-related contracts over the next 12 months [4]. These moves highlight the intensifying competition in the AI-driven enterprise software space.

Management Execution: Shareholder Returns vs. AI Ambitions

Salesforce’s management has taken steps to reassure investors, including a $20 billion increase in its share repurchase program—raising the total authorization to $50 billion—and returning $2.6 billion to shareholders in Q2 2026 [1]. CEO Marc Benioff emphasized AI and data as “core to our strategy,” but recent challenges, such as cybersecurity incidents and insider share sales, have muddied the narrative [3].

The company’s full-year guidance of $41.1–41.3 billion reflects confidence in its AI roadmap, yet the Q3 2026 forecast of $9.31–9.36 billion (7% YoY growth) signals caution [1]. This moderation aligns with broader macroeconomic uncertainty, as enterprises delay large IT spending. However, Salesforce’s forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.62X—below the SaaS industry average—suggests the stock may be undervalued [3].

Path to Rebound: Balancing Near-Term Risks and Long-Term Potential

For Salesforce to rebound in Q3 2026, it must address two key issues:
1. Scaling AI Monetization: Agentforce’s success hinges on its ability to transition from cost reduction to revenue generation. Early adopters like Sammons Financial Group have seen a 20% reduction in customer service inquiries, but the platform must demonstrate ROI across diverse industries [3].
2. Execution Consistency: The integration of Informatica and Own Data must accelerate to unify enterprise data ecosystems. Delays here could erode competitive advantages against Microsoft and Oracle.

Analysts remain divided. Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan upgraded Salesforce to “Overweight” and “Market Outperform,” citing its AI leadership and undervaluation [3]. Conversely, others warn of execution risks, particularly in light of Clara Shih’s departure from AI research and integration complexities [3].

Conclusion

Salesforce’s Q3 2026 rebound potential rests on its ability to balance short-term caution with long-term AI ambition. While its AI platforms are gaining traction, the company must navigate integration challenges, macroeconomic headwinds, and intensifying competition. For now, the stock’s forward P/S discount and strategic AI bets justify a cautious optimistic stance—but only if management can deliver on its vision.

Source:
[1] Salesforce Reports Record Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results [https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250903862948/en/Salesforce-Reports-Record-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results]
[2] Salesforce Q2 FY26 slides: revenue up 10%, Data Cloud ARR surges 120% [https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/salesforce-q2-fy26-slides-revenue-up-10-data-cloud-arr-surges-120-93CH-4222725]
[3] Salesforce's Sustained Revenue Outperformance and AI-Driven Growth Momentum [https://www.ainvest.com/news/salesforce-sustained-revenue-outperformance-ai-driven-growth-momentum-2509/]
[4] How Oracle Is Winning the AI Compute Market [https://semianalysis.com/2025/06/30/how-oracle-is-winning-the-ai-compute-market/]