SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) Market Overview: A Sustained Downtrend Amid High Volume and Oversold Momentum

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) fell 12.6% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.4976 after hitting 0.5523.
• Price action shows a bearish breakdown below a key 0.5375 support level with confirmation by two consecutive lower lows.
• Volume surged above 500,000 units during the selloff, signaling strong bearish conviction.
• RSI is oversold at 26, but price remains below key moving averages, indicating weak short-term recovery potential.

The 24-hour chart for SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at 0.5417 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4976 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.5523 and a low of 0.4947 during the period. Total volume amounted to 5,009,086.0 units, and with an average price of ~0.516, notional turnover approximates USD 2.57 million for the 24-hour window.

The price structure reveals a clear bearish bias, with a significant breakdown below the 0.5375–0.5405 support cluster. The move below this level was confirmed by a series of lower lows and a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.539–0.5383. A 15-minute 20 EMA is currently at ~0.507, while the 50 EMA sits at ~0.503, both well below the current price. On the daily scale, the 50- and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, reinforcing a prolonged downtrend.

MACD is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, and RSI has dipped into the 26–28 range, suggesting an oversold condition. However, this is not indicative of a reversal, as the price remains in a strong bear phase and is likely to test the next Fibonacci retracement level at 0.484 (61.8% of the 0.4947–0.5523 move). Bollinger Bands have expanded, with volatility increasing as the price trades near the lower band, signaling continued pressure.

The volume profile highlights a sharp increase during the selloff between 19:00 and 03:00 ET, with turnover aligning with price declines. This suggests coordinated selling activity. Notably, volume and price have moved in parallel, offering confirmation of the bearish bias rather than divergence.

A potential short-term rally could occur due to the oversold RSI, but without a clear bullish reversal pattern or a break above the 0.507 level, it is unlikely to last. Traders should watch for a retest of the 0.507 and 0.510 levels for signs of exhaustion or continuation. Risk remains on the downside, with 0.490–0.480 as the next critical support cluster.

Backtest Hypothesis
A viable strategy may involve a short entry triggered by a close below 0.507, confirmed by a bearish candlestick pattern or a bearish MACD crossover. A tight stop above 0.514 aligns with recent resistance, while a target of 0.490–0.480 reflects the Fibonacci 61.8% and 78.6% levels. This approach would require a defined risk-to-reward ratio and could be tested over historical 15-minute data to validate its efficacy in similar market conditions.