SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-09-25

• SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) declined 5.7% over 24 hours, closing at $0.4802 after opening at $0.5262.
• A bearish breakdown below key support at $0.5079 intensified selling pressure.
• Volume expanded sharply after 00:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions, later shifting to oversold territory.
• Price traded within expanding Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened volatility.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Summary

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.5262 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4802 on 2025-09-25 at the same time. The pair hit a high of $0.5294 and a low of $0.4731 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 53,283,388.0, with notional turnover reaching $26,313,986.07. The price closed well below the opening level, reflecting a strong bearish bias.

Structure and Key Levels

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a strong bearish bias, with a key breakdown below $0.5106, triggering a wave of selling. Notable support levels include $0.5079, $0.5065, and $0.5002, while resistance levels at $0.5130 and $0.5180 have shown repeated rejection. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 04:00 ET, confirming downward momentum. A doji near $0.5002 at the market open on 2025-09-25 suggested indecision but was quickly followed by further selling.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish crossover, with the price falling below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs, a bearish death cross. The MACD turned bearish, with a negative histogram, while RSI dropped to 28.2, indicating oversold territory. These metrics suggest exhaustion on the downside, though a rebound may still be short-lived.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Price action has largely stayed within the Bollinger Bands over the 24-hour period, with volatility showing a moderate expansion during the early hours of 2025-09-25. A contraction was observed between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price fell below the lower band. This pattern suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend, with price finding support near the lower band at times but failing to bounce effectively.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged after 00:00 ET, with the largest candle occurring at 00:30 ET, where 391,902 contracts changed hands. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the price decline. Divergence between volume and price was not observed, confirming the bearish momentum. However, the lower volume during the 15-minute candle at $0.5002 suggests a temporary slowdown in the selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.5294 to $0.4731, key levels include 38.2% at $0.5066 and 61.8% at $0.4927. The price tested the 38.2% level multiple times, with a breakdown below $0.4927 suggesting further downside. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the broader move appears at $0.4810, a potential near-term support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a breakdown below a key support level confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and an RSI below 30. Stop-loss is placed just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while the take-profit is set at the 61.8% level. This approach aligns with the recent bearish momentum observed in the SFPUSDT pair. The strategy would have captured the 5.7% decline over the 24-hour period with a defined risk and reward profile.