SafePal/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-06)

• Price surged 22.4% to $0.5225 on strong volume, breaking above key resistance at $0.5135.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bullish momentum, with RSI hitting 64 and MACD in positive territory.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting increased buying pressure.
• Volume surged 35% during the rally, supporting the price breakout.
• A bearish divergence in the late session hints at potential consolidation ahead.

SafePal/Tether (SFPUSDT) opened at $0.5087 on 2025-10-05 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.5218 at 16:00 ET on 2025-10-06. The 24-hour range was $0.4990 to $0.5231. Total volume was 1,215,212.0, with a notional turnover of $618,812. The pair saw a sharp reversal from a bearish trend to a strong bullish phase in the final 4 hours.

Structure & Formations

The price broke through the key resistance at $0.5135, forming a bullish breakout pattern. A strong bullish engulfing candle confirmed the reversal from $0.5135 to $0.5231. A doji appeared near the peak at $0.5222, signaling potential exhaustion. Support levels at $0.5070 and $0.5040 held during the early bearish phase, now acting as potential retracement zones.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA, confirming a bullish bias. The 50EMA at $0.5120 is acting as a dynamic support. On the daily chart, the price is above the 50DMA ($0.5065) and 200DMA ($0.5030), indicating a medium-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD (12,26,9) turned positive and is above the signal line, with a histogram showing widening bullish momentum. RSI (14) reached 64, suggesting strong buying pressure but not yet overbought. A divergence in RSI appeared during the late bearish correction near $0.5178, hinting at potential consolidation or a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening from a 0.5% range to nearly 3%. The price closed above the upper band at $0.5231, confirming a breakout. The expansion suggests increased market participation and higher risk of a pullback to the middle band at $0.5175 in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout to $0.5231, with over 125,000 SFP traded in the 14:45–15:00 ET candle. Turnover confirmed the volume increase, with the highest turnover at $32,370 for that same period. Price and turnover aligned, validating the bullish breakout. A divergence occurred between price and volume in the final 2 hours, as price fell slightly but volume remained high—suggesting potential profit-taking or distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute swing from $0.5041 to $0.5231 suggest possible retracement levels at 38.2% ($0.5163) and 61.8% ($0.5108). The 61.8% level may provide a short-term floor if the price retraces, with the 50% level at $0.5137 acting as initial resistance. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the 3-month low at $0.4850 suggest $0.5130 (38.2%) as a potential consolidation target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on the 20/50 SMA crossover and RSI above 55 could have captured most of the bullish move from $0.5135 to $0.5231. The breakout candle at $0.5231 with a bullish engulfing pattern would trigger a long signal. A stop-loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.5108 would have protected against the late bearish divergence. Traders could have taken profit at the 38.2% retracement level or held for the next bullish wave if the price closes above $0.5231 again.

Outlook & Risk Caveat

The price may retest the 50EMA at $0.5120 in the next 24 hours, with a potential pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.5108. A close above $0.5231 would confirm a stronger bullish case. However, profit-taking and the bearish divergence in the RSI could limit upside in the short term. Investors should monitor volume and turnover for signs of sustained momentum or distribution.