Sable Offshore (SOC) Surges 20.4167% on Trump-Backed Drilling Expansion Hopes

Sable Offshore (SOC) surged 20.4167% in pre-market trading on Nov. 12, 2025, as anticipation of renewed offshore drilling activity in California boosted investor sentiment. The sharp pre-market move came amid reports of a proposed Trump administration initiative to expand oil drilling along the state’s coastline for the first time in decades.

The draft plan, which would include six offshore lease sales between 2027 and 2030, aligns with broader energy policy goals outlined in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Analysts highlighted that the Santa Ynez project—a key federal waters initiative for Sable Offshore—stands to benefit from potential regulatory and funding support under the proposal. Roth Capital’s Leo Mariani noted the move signals “clear support” for the company’s long-term strategy, though final approval remains at least a year away and production timelines could stretch further.

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Backtest assumptions suggest a potential short-term momentum strategy could capitalize on the regulatory-driven volatility. Historical data from similar policy-driven energy sector moves indicate that stocks with direct project alignment to federal leasing programs often outperform peers by 12-18% in the 90-day window following initial announcements. However, execution risks—including environmental litigation and global oil price fluctuations—remain critical variables for long-term viability.