Sable Offshore experimenta una caída del 15% debido a la incertidumbre legal y a la volatilidad en los mercados relacionados con las tuberías de gas. ¿Qué será de Sable Offshore a partir de ahora?

Summary
• Sable Offshore (SOC) tumbles 15.18% intraday to $8.575, erasing a 79.26% one-month rally.
• Court ruling clears Santa Ynez pipeline restart, yet shares hit a 52-week low of $8.03.
• Options chain erupts with 2026-01-16 contracts showing 242% implied volatility and $24,717 turnover in key puts.
• Energy sector peers like Exxon Mobil (XOM) dip 1.97%, amplifying sector-wide jitters.

Sable Offshore’s stock has plunged to a 52-week low amid a volatile intraday swing from $10.05 to $8.03. The recent U.S. court decision to greenlight the Santa Ynez pipeline restart—a key catalyst for the company—has failed to arrest the sell-off, as traders grapple with regulatory uncertainty and a sharply bearish options market. With implied volatility spiking to 242% and leveraged ETFs like GUSH (-2.77%) amplifying pain, the energy sector faces a critical inflection point.

Legal Clarity Sparks Regulatory Uncertainty
The U.S. court’s rejection of an emergency challenge to Sable Offshore’s Santa Ynez pipeline restart initially fueled optimism, but the stock’s 15.18% intraday drop reveals deeper skepticism. Investors are recalibrating for operational risks tied to the pipeline’s restart, including potential regulatory pushback or environmental hurdles. The recent 79.26% one-month rally has created a valuation disconnect, with a P/B ratio of 4.2x starkly above the industry average of 1.3x. Meanwhile, the company’s $364.155 million net loss and ongoing legal battles cast doubt on its ability to capitalize on the pipeline’s potential.

Energy Sector Sinks as Exxon Mobil Drags Down Peers
The energy sector is under pressure, with Exxon Mobil (XOM) down 1.97% and leveraged ETFs like GUSH (-2.77%) amplifying the downturn. Sable Offshore’s 15.18% drop aligns with broader sector weakness, though its legal and operational risks make it an outlier. While XOM’s decline reflects macroeconomic concerns, SOC’s sell-off is driven by company-specific factors, including its precarious balance sheet and regulatory exposure. The sector’s mixed performance underscores divergent investor sentiment between integrated majors and high-risk explorers.

Options and ETFs to Hedge the Volatility: A Tactical Playbook
• 200-day average: 19.50 (far above current price)
• RSI: 66.89 (overbought but bearish reversal likely)
• MACD: 0.96 (bullish divergence fading)
• Bollinger Bands: 3.63–11.98 (current price near lower band)

Sable Offshore’s technicals paint a bearish picture, with the stock trading near its 52-week low and key support levels at $5.49–$5.64. The options market is pricing in extreme volatility, with the SOC20260116P9 put option (strike $9, expiration 2026-01-16) and SOC20260116C9.5 call (strike $9.5, same expiration) standing out. The put offers a 6.26% leverage ratio and 12.97% gamma, ideal for hedging a potential 5% downside to $8.15. The call, with 7.83% leverage and 14.36% gamma, could benefit from a rebound above $9.50. For ETF exposure, the Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares (GUSH) (-2.77%) and Strive U.S. Energy ETF (DRLL) (-0.73%) offer leveraged and unleveraged plays, though GUSH’s -2.77% drop highlights sector fragility.

Top Options Picks:
• SOC20260116P9 (Put):
- Strike: $9
- IV: 212.98% (extreme volatility)
- Leverage: 6.26% (high)
- Delta: -0.467 (moderate bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.038 (time decay manageable)
- Gamma: 0.1297 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $24,130 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Down: $0.35/share (max profit if price falls below $9).
- Why it stands out: High leverage and gamma make it ideal for a sharp decline, with liquid turnover ensuring execution.

• SOC20260116C9.5 (Call):
- Strike: $9.5
- IV: 191.77% (high volatility)
- Leverage: 7.83% (high)
- Delta: 0.453 (moderate bullish exposure)
- Theta: -0.068 (time decay moderate)
- Gamma: 0.1436 (very high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $26,257 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% Down: $0.00 (no profit if price falls below $9.5).
- Why it stands out: High gamma and leverage offer asymmetric upside if the stock rebounds, though time decay is a risk.

Action Alert: Aggressive bears should prioritize SOC20260116P9 for a 5% downside bet, while cautious bulls may consider SOC20260116C9.5 if the stock breaks above $9.50. ETFs like GUSH (-2.77%) and DRLL (-0.73%) offer sector exposure but are highly correlated with broader energy trends.

Backtest Sable Offshore Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (SOC) after a -15% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-Day, 10-Day, and 30-Day win rates are relatively high, indicating that the ETF tends to recover from short-term losses, the overall returns over these periods are negative, with a maximum return of only 0.26% during the backtest period.

Sable Offshore at a Crossroads: Watch $8.03 Support and Sector Catalysts
Sable Offshore’s 15.18% intraday drop has exposed the fragility of its recent rally, with technicals and options data pointing to a critical test of $8.03 support. While the court’s pipeline approval is a regulatory win, operational risks and a $364 million net loss remain unaddressed. Investors should monitor the $5.49–$5.64 support zone and sector performance, particularly Exxon Mobil’s (-1.97%) trajectory. For now, the SOC20260116P9 put and SOC20260116C9.5 call offer tactical hedges, but a sustained rebound will require a catalyst beyond legal clarity—such as a production restart or improved cash flow. Act now: Short-term traders should watch the $8.03 level, while long-term investors may consider waiting for a clearer regulatory and operational path.