RXO's Insider Buying Amid Mixed Earnings and Analyst Optimism: A Strategic Indicator of Turnaround or Long-Term Bet?

In the volatile landscape of digital freight-matching, RXO Inc. (RXO) has drawn attention for its recent insider transactions and mixed financial performance. Adrian Kingshott, a director of the company, purchased 9,350 shares of RXO common stock on November 17, 2025, at a weighted average price of $10.75, increasing his direct ownership to 91,137 shares. This move, coupled with the company's third-quarter earnings report-marked by a $0.01 adjusted EPS (well below the $0.25 estimate) and a $14 million net loss-raises critical questions about whether insider confidence reflects a near-term operational turnaround or a calculated bet on long-term growth ambitions.

Insider Confidence Amid Sector Volatility

Kingshott's share purchases occurred against a backdrop of sector-specific headwinds. RXO's Q3 2025 results highlighted a 34.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $1.42 billion, yet this growth was tempered by a 11% decline in full-truckload volume and a 13.5% brokerage gross margin, driven by tightening truckload markets. CEO Drew Wilkerson acknowledged these challenges, noting that "Buy rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities," compressing margins. Despite these pressures, Kingshott's insider activity-alongside his beneficial ownership of 7,745 restricted stock units (RSUs) set to vest on January 2, 2026)-suggests a belief in RXO's ability to navigate short-term turbulence.

This confidence may stem from the company's cost-cutting initiatives, which have already saved $30 million, and its strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance pricing algorithms and automation in last-mile services according to analysts. These moves align with broader industry trends toward digital transformation, where freight-matching platforms are increasingly leveraging technology to optimize logistics. Kingshott's purchases, therefore, could signal a vote of confidence in RXO's operational resilience rather than a reaction to immediate earnings disappointments.

Long-Term Ambitions and 2028 Projections

While RXO has not formally outlined a 2028 growth strategy, analysts project the company could reach $6.9 billion in revenue and $132.5 million in earnings by that year, assuming a 7.3% annual revenue growth rate. These expectations are underpinned by RXO's focus on expanding its less-than-truckload (LTL) brokerage and digital freight-matching capabilities, which saw a 43% volume surge in Q3 2025. The company's Last Mile segment, for instance, demonstrated 12% year-over-year stop growth, highlighting its potential to offset declines in traditional freight verticals.

Kingshott's insider buying appears to align with these long-term ambitions. By increasing his direct ownership, he may be signaling alignment with RXO's strategic pivot toward technology-driven solutions. This is particularly notable given the company's recent emphasis on AI investments and automation, which are expected to drive productivity gains and margin expansion. However, the absence of a detailed 2028 roadmap-coupled with ongoing losses in key automotive verticals-introduces uncertainty. Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance, with a $16.78 average price target compared to RXO's current $17.38 share price according to market analysis, but sector volatility remains a wildcard.

Balancing Short-Term Risks and Long-Term Potential

RXO's Q4 2025 guidance underscores the fragility of its near-term outlook. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million, with brokerage volume declining by a low-single-digit percentage and gross margins hovering at 12–13%. These projections reflect persistent challenges in the truckload market and regulatory pressures, such as new enforcement actions on non-domiciled drivers, which have elevated transportation costs.

Yet, Kingshott's purchases suggest a belief that these headwinds are temporary. His decision to acquire shares post-earnings-despite a 14.87% pre-market stock decline according to reports-indicates a contrarian view that RXO's fundamentals remain intact. This aligns with Wilkerson's assertion that the company is "positioned for an eventual recovery" through structural cost reductions and AI-driven efficiency gains according to market analysis. For investors, the key question is whether these initiatives will translate into sustainable margin expansion or merely delay inevitable sector-wide adjustments.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Digital Transformation

Adrian Kingshott's insider activity appears to reflect a dual-layered conviction: a short-term belief in RXO's operational turnaround and a long-term bet on its digital freight-matching ambitions. While the company's Q3 earnings highlighted near-term vulnerabilities, its strategic investments in AI and automation-alongside Kingshott's direct ownership stake-underscore a commitment to long-term value creation. However, the absence of a formal 2028 growth strategy and ongoing sector volatility mean that this confidence must be weighed against execution risks. For now, insider buying serves as a compelling signal that RXO's leadership sees opportunity in adversity, even as the path to profitability remains uncertain.