RVNUSDT Market Overview

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of $0.01372 before stabilizing.
• Volume surged during the midday drop, suggesting bearish conviction.
• Momentum softened after a brief overbought RSI peak in early morning.
• Price is now near the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the recent high.
• Volatility remained compressed until the 4 AM ET sell-off.

Opening Snapshot

Ravencoin/Tether (RVNUSDT) opened at $0.01396 on September 13, 2025 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01400, dipped to a low of $0.01372, and closed at $0.01373 on 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume amounted to approximately 26,994,803.9 RVN, with a notional turnover of about $368,696. This reflects a notable bearish shift, especially after the sharp move between 4–6 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

The price structure suggests a key support level forming around $0.01376–0.01378, confirmed by a series of rejection candles and a consolidation pattern after the sharp drop. The 0.01376 level has shown resilience, especially after the morning sell-off. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at the 2 AM ET candle, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Doji candles appear near $0.01386 and $0.01377, indicating indecision and potential reversal zones. A minor resistance appears at $0.01385, with mixed buying pressure observed.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing pattern forms near a key Fibonacci retracement level (e.g., 61.8%) and RSI exceeds 55. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, with a target at the next lower Fibonacci level or 1.618 extension of the move. This approach would align with the current structure, where the 61.8% level is near $0.01385 and the 38.2% is at $0.01378. The strategy aims to capture continuation of the bearish bias if the consolidation fails to hold. Given the low RSI (~39) and compressed Bollinger Bands, this method could potentially identify a short-term continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

A cross below the 15-minute 50-period moving average occurred during the early morning sell-off, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 100-period MA, reinforcing a potential longer-term downtrend. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting a possible bounce but not necessarily a reversal. MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing a gradual narrowing, indicating that bearish momentum is waning, but not reversing.

Volatility and Volume

Bollinger Bands were narrow throughout the session until the 4 AM ET break, where a significant expansion occurred following the sell-off. Price action during that expansion traded near the lower band, suggesting bearish volatility. Volume spiked during this period, confirming the move down. However, the volume has since receded, and recent price consolidation has failed to attract significant buying volume, indicating possible exhaustion. A divergence between price and turnover is visible around 7 AM ET, where price stabilized but volume remained low.

Forward Outlook and Risk

Looking ahead, a breakdown below $0.01376 could signal a potential move toward the $0.01368 level, where a prior low was observed. However, the immediate risk is of a retracement to $0.01383–0.01385, especially if the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart turns upward. Investors should monitor the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels for signs of support or rejection. Caution is advised near key psychological levels, and stop-loss orders are recommended for short-term bearish plays.