Rune/Tether Market Overview: Breakout Confirmed, Overbought Momentum, and Key Resistance Tested

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) rallied 10.2% over the last 24 hours, closing above key resistance at $1.34.
• Volatility and volume spiked sharply after 18:00 ET, confirming breakout momentum.
• RSI reached overbought territory (70+), suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened price swings and market interest.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at key support near $1.33, indicating strong buying pressure.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at $1.26 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $1.367, and closed at $1.36 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET. The pair posted a total 24-hour volume of 2,891,380.5 and notional turnover of $3,952,766. The price action shows a clear breakout above critical resistance levels, with strong volume confirmation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish breakout starting around 18:00 ET, marked by a large bullish candle that closed at $1.360. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the $1.335 support level, which was a key psychological and Fibonacci retracement level (61.8% of the prior bearish swing). A doji formed briefly at $1.367, signaling a potential pause or reversal. Key resistances now appear at $1.370 (next Fibonacci level), and support remains at $1.340.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum is above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, indicating a strong upward bias. On the daily chart, price closed above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, affirming a long-term bullish trend and confirming a breakout from consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line with strong positive divergence, confirming the breakout. RSI reached overbought territory at 70, suggesting that short-term overextension may lead to a consolidation phase or a temporary pullback. However, given the strong volume and breakout confirmation, a continuation is still likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly as price broke out of a tight range. At one point, price touched the upper band near $1.367, indicating high volatility and aggressive buying pressure. The price is currently above the 20-period moving average and within the upper third of the bands, signaling elevated momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically after 18:00 ET, particularly during the bullish engulfing pattern and breakout candle. Notional turnover also surged in line with price action, confirming the strength of the move. No notable divergence between volume and price was observed, suggesting strong institutional or coordinated retail participation in the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested and closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1.335. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the previous bearish move is now at $1.370, a key near-term resistance. A move beyond this level could target the 78.6% retracement at $1.390.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed breakout and strong volume confirmation, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position after a bullish engulfing pattern with closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and RSI above 50. A stop loss could be placed just below the breakout candle’s low, with a target at the next Fibonacci level ($1.370). This setup has historically yielded high-probability long trades in similar breakout scenarios, especially in mid-cap altcoins with strong on-chain demand signals.

Looking ahead, Rune/Tether faces a critical test at $1.370. A close above this level may confirm a new bullish phase, but investors should remain cautious of a short-term pullback as RSI remains overbought. Volatility is likely to persist, and traders should watch for volume divergence or key Fibonacci levels to gauge the strength of the rally.