Rune/Tether Market Overview

• Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) fluctuated around 0.854, forming mixed bullish and bearish signals near key levels.
• A notable breakout attempt occurred during the 19:15–20:00 ET window, but it failed to sustain above 0.863.
• Volume spiked above 100,000 at 0.863 but then sharply declined, hinting at potential exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD momentum indicators showed mixed signals—no clear overbought or oversold levels.
• Bollinger Bands expanded overnight, indicating increased volatility, with price clustering near the upper band.

Rune/Tether (RUNEUSDT) opened at 0.851 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.867, a low of 0.846, and closed at 0.859 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-25. The total 24-hour trading volume was 1,320,162.8, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,133,420. The pair displayed a complex price action, marked by several attempts to break above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The price of Rune/Tether formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.857–0.86 during the 19:15–20:30 ET window, indicating a potential short-term reversal. However, this was followed by a bearish harami near 0.863–0.862 during the 05:15–06:00 ET window, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum. Notable support levels emerged around 0.858–0.859 and 0.856, with a stronger rejection observed at 0.863. A doji formed near 0.859 during the 09:15–09:30 ET window, suggesting indecision among traders in that range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages indicated a mixed trend, with the 20SMA briefly crossing above the 50SMA during the 20:30–21:30 ET window, forming a tentative golden cross. However, the trend weakened as the 20SMA began to decline again by 04:30 ET. The daily chart showed the 50-period and 200-period moving averages diverging slightly, with the 50SMA holding above the 200SMA, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line twice during the 24-hour window, most notably around 20:30 and 01:30 ET. However, these signals were not confirmed by strong price action or volume, suggesting caution. The RSI oscillated between 40 and 65, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but with a hint of bearish pressure as it dipped below 50 for most of the morning. A bearish divergence appeared between price and RSI during the 05:15–07:00 ET period.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight hours, especially between 02:30 and 07:00 ET, indicating elevated volatility. Price remained mostly within the bands but showed a temporary rejection at the upper band around 0.863–0.865 during the 01:30–04:30 ET period. A contraction in band width occurred from 09:00 to 11:00 ET, hinting at a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover showed strong spikes during the 19:15–20:30 ET and 01:30–03:45 ET windows, coinciding with attempted breakouts above key resistance levels. However, volume declined sharply after each breakout failure, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the early morning, with volume failing to confirm the price’s strength. The overall volume profile favored the long side, but it lacked the consistency of a strong trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 15-minute swing from 0.846 to 0.867, the 61.8% level at 0.859 became a significant point of interest. Price tested this level multiple times before consolidating around it in the final hours of the 24-hour period. Daily Fibonacci levels showed the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements at 0.858 and 0.856 respectively, with the 61.8% level appearing to act as a temporary floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the mixed signals from both momentum and volume indicators, a potential backtest strategy could focus on MACD-based golden and death cross triggers combined with volume confirmation. Using historical 15-minute OHLCV data, we could test the effectiveness of entering long positions on a MACD golden cross (when the MACD line crosses above the signal line) that coincides with a volume increase of at least 1.5× the 10-period average. Conversely, short positions could be triggered on a MACD death cross with a corresponding volume spike. This approach would aim to capture trend entries during consolidation phases and confirm momentum with volume divergence. Testing this strategy from 2022 to the present would provide valuable insights into its robustness across different market conditions.